- Published
As you cross the Ottawa river into Témiscaming, Quebec, the paper mill takes up much of the horizon.
asserted
mill → publish → horizon
The town itself was built over a century ago, around the mill and the region's forests filled with pine, birch, spruce and fir.
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town → build → pine
Now, the main employer and economic anchor sits idle after trade talks broke down between Canada and the US and President Donald Trump imposed more tariffs on the country.
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Trump → sit → country
Most of the mill‘s 360 employees are out of work, kept afloat for the moment with partial pay from government tariff-relief.
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Most → keep → relief
For some, like Nadine Suley, the shuttering of the mill could mark not just a lost livelihood, but a lost way of life.
uncertain
shuttering → mark → life
She is not "a city girl", and is heading out moose hunting later to take advantage of the short season, like much of the town.
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She → head → town
She quips they'll all need the free meat provided by the animals this year.
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they → quip → animals
It's our home," Suley says, adding that the US tariffs on her town feel like "a personal attack".
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tariffs → say → attack
In early October, American owner RYAM went ahead with an "economic shutdown" of the mill for "an indefinite period".
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RYAM → go → period
Property values in Témiscaming fell almost overnight, and "For Sale" signs dot the yards of modest middle-class homes that make up most of the town.
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that → fall → town
There are fears that essential service people - from grocery store clerks to the doctors at the small local hospital - could also be on their way out.
uncertain
people → be → way
"If the mill goes down, it'll turn into a ghost town," says Ronnie Raymond, who like many in the town comes from a family of mill workers.
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who → go → workers
At a high level, Canada's economy has weathered the ongoing trade war with the US, its largest customer.
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economy → weather → US
The national unemployment rate has remained largely steady at around 6.5% since Trump's tariffs were first implemented.
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tariffs → remain → %
It's been coupled with tepid but consistent economic growth.
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It → couple → growth
But a closer look at the numbers shows pockets of deep pain in industries directly hit by US tariffs of up to 50%, like steel, aluminium, automobiles and - in the case of Témiscaming - lumber, pulp and paper.
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look → show → Témiscaming
It raises questions about whether the Carney government is doing enough to help those struggling while a trade deal remains elusive.
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deal → raise → those
"If there was 10% of job loss in Toronto or Montreal or Quebec City or Vancouver, it'd be all over the news, and it'd be a lot of pressure on the governments to do something,” says Stéphane Lefebvre, an employee and union leader, whose father and grandfather also worked at the mill.
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father → be → mill
That economic pain could have ripple effects on the entire forestry industry in the region, including saw mills and trucking.
uncertain
pain → have → mills
One local contractor told the BBC he has already had to lay off 13 people.
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he → tell → people
The last time the town faced a threat this existential was in 1973, when the mill's then-American owner threatened to shut it down, prompting the local workers and managers to come together and purchase it.
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owner → face → it
They turned it into Tembec, a Quebec-owned, international company with branches across North America and France.
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They → turn → America
The workers now hope to do it again, mobilising a coalition of locals who want to buy the plant back from RYAM, which purchased it in 2017.
"We're hoping that lightning will hit twice," Lefebvre says, speaking inside the town's union hall.
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Lefebvre → hope → hall
But he contends that they cannot do so without significant help from Prime Minister Mark Carney and the Quebec government, either in the form of tariff relief or financial support.
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they → contend → relief
Suley notes that the prime minister has placed emphasis on "buy local" and supporting Canadian workers since he was elected.
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he → note → workers
Backing the town's bid to buy back the mill, she says, would be a way for Carney to fulfil that pledge.
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Carney → back → pledge
In an email to the BBC, RYAM said it would not comment on a potential sale of the plant or any prospective buyers.
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it → say → plant
Mayor Alain Gauthier doesn't blame RYAM for its decision.
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Gauthier → blame → decision
He calls US tariffs "a bomb to shut down our manufacturing in Canada".
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He → call → Canada
He wants Ottawa to retaliate with its own duties on the board products coming into Canada from the US, currently tariff-free.
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Ottawa → want → US
And he says that while politicians have said Canada is in an economic war with the US, "in reality we see absolutely no evidence of war measures being taken".
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we → say → measures
"We feel we got into a war with kid's water guns to fight back."
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we → feel → guns
Some, like Lefebvre, feel that forestry has taken a back seat in the fight to save other tariffed industries like steel and autos.
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forestry → feel → steel
This month, Industry Minister Mélanie Joly threatened Stelco - one of Canada's largest steelmakers - with financial penalties or a forced asset sale should they go ahead with the planned layoffs of some 500 workers due to steel tariffs pressure.
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they → threaten → pressure
Stelco in Hamilton, near Toronto, is owned by US-based Cleveland-Cliffs, which committed to keeping jobs in Canada when it bought the firm in 2024.
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it → own → 2024
Last week, Carney and Ontario Premier Doug Ford announced nearly C$9bn ($6.4bn; £4.8bn) to help Ontario's steel and auto sector.
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Carney → announce → sector
The funds will be used to help the industries modernise, strengthen domestic demand and open new markets overseas, they said.
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they → use → markets
Sébastien Lemire, the elected MP for Témiscaming from the Bloc Québécois party, told the BBC that he is "very concerned and worried" about what he calls inaction from the Carney government to support the town and Quebec's forestry industry more broadly.
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he → elect → town
A spokesperson for Minister Joly told the BBC in a statement that the government has made available $400m to support the forestry sector in rural and remote areas.
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m → tell → areas
It has also launched a programme to help businesses impacted by tariffs to access cash-flow while they work to pivot away from US markets.
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they → launch → markets
…and 22 more, not listed.
The Aporia
