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AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Montana on Election Day

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Cite

Yoon, R., & Baker, C. (2026, October 30). AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Montana on Election Day. Toronto Star. https://www.thestar.com/news/world/united-states/ap-decision-notes-what-to-expect-in-montana-on-election-day/article_205c9ee1-2874-51c6-ac0d-14e607f91df5.html

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Toronto Star · collected 2026-10-30 · by Robert Yoon, Camille Baker analysis

Quick Summary

Montana voters are participating in federal, state, and local elections on Election Day, with polls closing at 8 p.m. local time (10 p.m. ET). The Associated Press will provide results for races including U.S. Senate and House seats, statewide ballot measures, and more. In the last presidential election, approximately 603,000 votes were cast, with about 81% of those being early or absentee ballots. Counties vary in their release of early and absentee vote counts, but most start releasing results shortly after polls close. The AP will declare winners only when it is mathematically impossible for a trailing candidate to catch up, and recounts are automatic only if the race ends in a tie.
Written by AI on 2026-11-01, from this article's own text only (the story summary below draws on all the coverage).

AI analysis

Story summary

Montana voters will elect leaders for federal and state offices on Tuesday, with polls closing at 8 p.m. local time (10 p.m. ET). The Associated Press will provide results for races including U.S. Senate, U.S. House, statewide ballot measures, state Supreme Court, state Senate, state House, and Public Service Commission. In the last presidential election in 2024, about 603,000 votes were cast, with approximately 81% of those votes coming from early or absentee ballots. Montana counties vary in their release of early and absentee vote results; roughly a third are expected to provide all initial results at the start of election night, while almost every county will release some mail or early in-person results initially.

Written for “Montana Election Day Expectations” on 2026-11-01, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.
Why this leaning score
This article does not take a side on a contested political question, so it has no leaning score. That is an answer rather than a gap: a match report or a rescue can be warmly or critically written without being left or right, and scoring it anyway is how approval of a subject gets recorded as a political position.
No political leaning scored for article 118203 · logged 2026-11-01

Story

📰 Montana Election Day Expectations
Politics · 1 article(s) covering the same event.

Compared with similar articles

This article reads unscored and hedges 9% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
Toronto Star
Hedges 1 of 20 claims Outlet record 64/100
“The articles describe different states' elections with distinct races and polling times.”
How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
23
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
9%
2 of 23 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
not political
takes no side on a contested political question
Publisher signals
64/100
Toronto Star's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
1
Politics
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-11-01 · how these are computed

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

Toronto Star · 10939 article(s) · 28 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 28 correction(s)
2026-10-26
Correction
2026-10-24
Correction
2026-10-07
Correction
2026-09-24
Correction

Who wrote this

Robert Yoon
25 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 WASHINGTON (AP) — Delaware voters will elect leaders for federal, state and other offices on Tuesday.
🔮 Here are some key facts about the election and data points the AP Decision Team will monitor as the votes are tallied on Tuesday.
🔮 Here are some of the key facts about the election and data points the AP Decision Team will monitor as the votes are tallied on Tuesday:
🔮 WASHINGTON (AP) — West Virginia voters will elect leaders for federal, state and other offices on Tuesday.
🔮 Here are some key facts about the election and data points the AP Decision Team will monitor as the votes are tallied.
🔮 WASHINGTON (AP) — Idaho voters will elect leaders for federal, state and other offices on Tuesday.
🔮 WASHINGTON (AP) — Alabama voters will elect leaders for federal, state and other offices on Tuesday.
🔮 WASHINGTON (AP) — Illinois voters will elect leaders for federal, state and other offices on Tuesday.
🔮 WASHINGTON (AP) — Colorado voters will elect leaders for federal, state and local offices on Tuesday.
🔮 Connecticut voters will elect leaders for federal, state and other offices on Tuesday.
Also by Robert Yoon
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 25 articles by Robert Yoon →
Camille Baker
23 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 WASHINGTON (AP) — Delaware voters will elect leaders for federal, state and other offices on Tuesday.
🔮 Here are some key facts about the election and data points the AP Decision Team will monitor as the votes are tallied on Tuesday.
🔮 Here are some of the key facts about the election and data points the AP Decision Team will monitor as the votes are tallied on Tuesday:
🔮 WASHINGTON (AP) — West Virginia voters will elect leaders for federal, state and other offices on Tuesday.
🔮 Here are some key facts about the election and data points the AP Decision Team will monitor as the votes are tallied.
🔮 WASHINGTON (AP) — Idaho voters will elect leaders for federal, state and other offices on Tuesday.
🔮 WASHINGTON (AP) — Alabama voters will elect leaders for federal, state and other offices on Tuesday.
🔮 WASHINGTON (AP) — Illinois voters will elect leaders for federal, state and other offices on Tuesday.
🔮 WASHINGTON (AP) — Colorado voters will elect leaders for federal, state and local offices on Tuesday.
🔮 Connecticut voters will elect leaders for federal, state and other offices on Tuesday.
Also by Camille Baker
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 23 articles by Camille Baker →

Topics

Montana The Associated Press U.S. Senate WASHINGTON the AP Decision Team

Subjects

Montana GPE · 5× The Associated Press ORG · 2× House and Public Service Commission ORG · 1× Senate ORG · 1× Supreme Court ORG · 1× U.S. House ORG · 1× U.S. Senate ORG · 1× WASHINGTON GPE · 1× the AP Decision Team ORG · 1×

Narrative

The Associated Press will provide vote results and declare winners in races for U.S. Senate, U.S. House, statewide ballot measures, state Supreme Court, state Senate, state House and Public Service Commission.
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-11-01
🔮 WASHINGTON (AP) — Montana voters will elect leaders for federal, state and other offices on Tuesday.
2026-11-01 · Toronto Star
AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Montana on Election Day · assertive framing

Claims (23 extracted, 2 hedged)

WASHINGTON (AP) — Montana voters will elect leaders for federal, state and other offices on Tuesday. asserted
voters → elect → Tuesday
Here are some of the key facts about the election and data points the AP Decision Team will monitor as the votes are tallied. asserted
votes → monitor → election
When do polls close? asserted
polls → close → ?
Polls close at 8 p.m. local time, which is 10 p.m. ET. asserted
which → close → p.m.
The Associated Press will provide vote results and declare winners in races for U.S. Senate, U.S. House, statewide ballot measures, state Supreme Court, state Senate, state House and Public Service Commission. asserted
Press → provide → Senate
How many people voted in the last presidential election? asserted
people → vote → election
About 603,000 votes were cast in Montana in the 2024 presidential election. asserted
votes → cast → election
How much of the vote is cast early or by absentee ballot? asserted
much → cast → ballot
About 81% of Montana’s votes in the 2024 presidential race were cast early or by absentee ballot. asserted
% → cast → ballot
When are early and absentee votes released? asserted
votes → release → ?
Montana counties vary in how they release votes. asserted
they → vary → votes
About a third are expected to release all or almost all results at the start of the night, regardless of vote type. asserted
third → expect → type
Almost every county is expected to release at least some mail or early in-person results in the first vote report. asserted
county → expect → report
About a third do not release any in-person Election Day results at the start of the night, while another third releases them throughout the night. asserted
third → release → night
How long does vote counting usually take? The first results of the 2024 election were reported starting at 10 p.m. ET on Nov. 5, as polls closed. asserted
polls → take → Nov.
The state reached 50% of votes reporting at 3:43 a.m. ET the next morning, and 90% of votes reporting at 11:16 a.m. ET. asserted
state → reach → ET
When will the AP declare a winner? asserted
AP → declare → winner
The Associated Press does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it’s determined there is no scenario that would allow a trailing candidate to close the gap. asserted
candidate → make → gap
If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. asserted
AP → call → victory
In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why. asserted
declared → do → winner
How do recounts work? Montana requires an automatic recount only in the event of a tie vote. asserted
Montana → work → vote
A candidate may request a recount if the margin is less than 0.5% of the total vote, but public funds will only pay for it if the margin is 0.25% or less. uncertain
margin → request → it
The AP may declare a winner in a race that is subject to a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome. uncertain
recount → declare → outcome
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