Photo via Toronto Star

AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Minnesota on Election Day

Read the original at Toronto Star ↗
Cite

Yoon, R. (2026, October 30). AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Minnesota on Election Day. Toronto Star. https://www.thestar.com/news/world/united-states/ap-decision-notes-what-to-expect-in-minnesota-on-election-day/article_db4a3caf-70a5-55e6-93f8-7363bc816bdd.html

Dated from the outlet's own feed. Check the original for its byline.

Toronto Star · collected 2026-10-30 · by Robert Yoon analysis

Quick Summary

Minnesota voters head to polls on Election Day to choose new governors and senators, among other positions. Democratic Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan faces Republican Michele Tafoya in the Senate race, while Democratic Sen. Amy Klobuchar runs against Republican state House Speaker Lisa Demuth for governor. The outcome of these races could influence control over both chambers of the Minnesota Legislature, which are currently evenly split between Democrats and Republicans. President Trump endorsed Tafoya and Lindell but lost all three presidential elections in Minnesota by significant margins.
Written by AI on 2026-10-31, from this article's own text only (the story summary below draws on all the coverage).

AI analysis

Story summary

On Election Day in Minnesota, voters will elect a new governor and senator to replace retiring Democratic Senator Tina Smith. The Senate race features Democratic Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and Republican candidate Michele Tafoya among four candidates competing for the position. In August, Flanagan won the Democratic primary with 59% of the vote against Rep. Angie Craig. This election comes amid a political shift as President Donald Trump has targeted Minnesota in his second term. Voters will also decide on other federal and state offices that could determine control over both chambers of the state Legislature.

Written for “AP Decision Notes Minnesota Election Day” on 2026-10-31, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.
Why this leaning score
This article does not take a side on a contested political question, so it has no leaning score. That is an answer rather than a gap: a match report or a rescue can be warmly or critically written without being left or right, and scoring it anyway is how approval of a subject gets recorded as a political position.
No political leaning scored for article 117505 · logged 2026-10-31

Story

📰 AP Decision Notes Minnesota Election Day
Politics · 1 article(s) covering the same event.

Compared with similar articles

Nothing to compare against. No article is close enough to this one for the pipeline to have linked or judged the pair.
How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
49
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
8%
4 of 49 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
not political
takes no side on a contested political question
Publisher signals
64/100
Toronto Star's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
1
Politics
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-10-31 · how these are computed

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

Toronto Star · 10661 article(s) · 27 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 27 correction(s)
2026-10-26
Correction
2026-10-24
Correction
2026-10-07
Correction
2026-09-24
Correction

Who wrote this

Robert Yoon
10 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 WASHINGTON (AP) — Delaware voters will elect leaders for federal, state and other offices on Tuesday.
🔮 WASHINGTON (AP) — Alabama voters will elect leaders for federal, state and other offices on Tuesday.
🔮 WASHINGTON (AP) — Illinois voters will elect leaders for federal, state and other offices on Tuesday.
🔮 WASHINGTON (AP) — Kentucky voters will elect leaders for federal, state and other offices on Tuesday.
🔮 WASHINGTON (AP) — Washington, D.C., voters will elect leaders for federal and local offices on Tuesday.
🔮 Voters on Tuesday will also decide contests for U.S. House and two state House special elections.
🔮 WASHINGTON (AP) — New Jersey voters will elect leaders for congressional offices on Tuesday.
🔮 WASHINGTON (AP) — Florida Republicans will try to extend their dominance in statewide elections Tuesday as voters decide races for Senate, governor and other state and legislative offices.
🔮 WASHINGTON (AP) — Minnesota voters will elect a new governor and new senator Tuesday after retirement announcements by two prominent Democrats caused a reshuffling throughout the ballot.
🔮 Massachusetts Democrats will decide the latest head-to-head matchup between the party’s moderate and progressive wings in a state primary Tuesday, but this time, top progressives are backing the incumbent against a more moderate challenger.
Also by Robert Yoon
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 10 articles by Robert Yoon →

Topics

Democratic Democrats Minnesota Republican Republicans

Subjects

Democratic NORP · 7× Minnesota GPE · 6× Republican NORP · 5× Democrats NORP · 4× Senate ORG · 4× House ORG · 3× Republicans NORP · 3× Trump PERSON · 3× Flanagan PERSON · 2× Tafoya PERSON · 2×

Narrative

In the Senate race, Democratic Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and Republican Michele Tafoya, a former sports broadcaster, are among four candidates vying to replace Democratic Sen. Tina Smith, who announced in 2025 that she would not seek a second full term.
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-10-31
🔮 WASHINGTON (AP) — Minnesota voters will elect a new governor and new senator Tuesday after retirement announcements by two prominent Democrats caused a reshuffling throughout the ballot.
2026-10-31 · Toronto Star
AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Minnesota on Election Day · assertive framing

Claims (49 extracted, 4 hedged)

WASHINGTON (AP) — Minnesota voters will elect a new governor and new senator Tuesday after retirement announcements by two prominent Democrats caused a reshuffling throughout the ballot. asserted
announcements → elect → ballot
Voters will also decide races for other federal and state offices, including contests across the state that could determine control of both chambers of the narrowly divided state Legislature. uncertain
that → decide → Legislature
The state has been at the center of a political maelstrom in President Donald Trump’s second term, as the Republican president has focused much of his ire on Minnesota and its Democratic leaders. asserted
president → focus → Minnesota
In the Senate race, Democratic Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and Republican Michele Tafoya, a former sports broadcaster, are among four candidates vying to replace Democratic Sen. Tina Smith, who announced in 2025 that she would not seek a second full term. asserted
she → vie → term
Flanagan defeated Rep. Angie Craig in the Aug. 11 primary, 59% to 39%, in one of several Democratic primary matchups this year where progressive candidates outperformed establishment favorites. asserted
candidates → defeat → favorites
Smith backed Flanagan in the primary, as did Sens. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Rep. Ilhan Omar of the 5th Congressional District. asserted
Warren → back → District
Outgoing Democratic Gov. Tim Walz did not make an endorsement. asserted
Walz → make → endorsement
Tafoya defeated eight candidates in her primary, including former Navy SEAL Adam Schwarze, who had the state party’s endorsement. asserted
who → defeat → endorsement
Trump did not back any candidate in the primary but endorsed Tafoya on Monday for the general election. asserted
Trump → back → election
In the race for governor, Democratic Sen. Amy Klobuchar and Republican state House Speaker Lisa Demuth are among three candidates running to replace Walz. asserted
Klobuchar → run → Walz
Demuth was the top vote-getter in a seven-candidate primary field that included prominent 2020 election denier and MyPillow founder Mike Lindell, who had Trump’s endorsement. asserted
who → include → endorsement
Klobuchar faced minimal opposition for the Democratic nomination. asserted
Klobuchar → face → nomination
Democrats have a one-seat advantage in the 67-member state Senate. asserted
Democrats → have → Senate
In the 134-member state House, Democrats and Republicans were deadlocked at 67 seats each until a Republican member vacated his seat after the session adjourned for the year. asserted
session → deadlocke → year
Trump lost Minnesota in all three of his presidential campaigns. asserted
Trump → lose → campaigns
His best showing was in 2016, when he came within 1.5 percentage points of victory. asserted
he → come → victory
He lost by about 4 points in 2024, receiving 46.7% of the vote. asserted
He → lose → vote
In statewide races, Democrats typically post big wins in the Minneapolis-St. Paul area in Hennepin and Ramsey counties. asserted
Democrats → post → counties
They also typically carry the Duluth area in the northeast and the Rochester area in the southeast. asserted
They → carry → southeast
Republicans have performed best in smaller, more rural counties across the state. asserted
Republicans → perform → state
Gov. Tim Pawlenty’s 2006 reelection was the last statewide contest Republicans won in Minnesota. asserted
Republicans → win → Minnesota
The last Republican to win a U.S. Senate race in Minnesota was Norm Coleman in 2002. asserted
Republican → win → 2002
Here are some of the key facts about the election and data points the AP Decision Team will monitor as the votes are tallied: asserted
votes → monitor → election
When do polls close? asserted
polls → close → ?
Polls close at 8 p.m. CT, which is 9 p.m. ET. asserted
which → close → p.m.
What’s on the ballot? asserted
What → ’ → ballot
The Associated Press will provide vote results and declare winners for U.S. Senate, U.S. House, governor, secretary of state, auditor, attorney general, state Senate, state House and a statewide ballot measure. asserted
Press → provide → state
How many people actually vote? asserted
people → vote → ?
About 2.5 million votes were cast in Minnesota’s 2022 election for governor. asserted
votes → cast → governor
How much of the vote is cast early or by absentee ballot? asserted
much → cast → ballot
About 27% of the vote in the 2022 gubernatorial election was cast early in person or by mail. asserted
% → cast → mail
When are early and absentee votes released? asserted
votes → release → ?
Counties are expected to release results from early in-person and mail voting throughout the night, along with results from in-person Election Day voting. asserted
Counties → expect → voting
The first vote reports of the night are expected to include results from all vote types. asserted
reports → expect → types
Hennepin County, the state’s most populous, expects to release complete results from all vote types in the first vote update. asserted
County → expect → update
Ramsey and Dakota counties are expected to release relatively few results in their first vote updates, regardless of vote type. asserted
counties → expect → type
How long does vote-counting usually take? In the 2024 general election, the AP first reported results at 9:08 p.m. ET, or eight minutes after polls closed. asserted
polls → take → ET
The vote count reached the halfway point at 11:40 p.m. ET. asserted
count → reach → ET
The last vote update of the night was at 5:19 a.m. ET Wednesday morning with more than 99% of total votes counted. asserted
% → count → votes
When will the AP declare a winner? asserted
AP → declare → winner
…and 9 more, not listed.
💬Give feedback
🕘History 🎫Support