WASHINGTON (AP) — In Pennsylvania, three races for U.S. House seats currently held by Republicans are being closely watched for their potential to turn blue.
asserted
races → hold → potential
The Keystone State is one of several states whose House races could determine whether Democrats take back power in the chamber.
uncertain
Democrats → determine → chamber
Democrats need to win three more seats in the midterm elections than they did in 2024 to take back the majority from Republicans.
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they → need → Republicans
Conditions have worsened for Republicans seeking office since the start of President Donald Trump’s second term.
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Conditions → worsen → term
His approval rating has plunged, and his tariff policy, immigration crackdown and decision to launch a war in Iran are squeezing Americans’ finances and threatening to alienate his supporters.
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policy → plunge → supporters
In the three key Pennsylvania districts — the 7th, 8th and 10th — Trump outperformed the Republican House winners in the 2024 election, a warning sign that without his name on the ballot, the incumbents seeking reelection may struggle to get the Republican turnout necessary to stay in office.
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incumbents → outperform → office
In 2024, Trump won the 7th Congressional District, in the Lehigh Valley, by a margin of just 3 percentage points.
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Trump → win → points
Republican Rep. Ryan Mackenzie, who is running for a second term, and Democrat Bob Brooks, a former firefighter and union leader, are now facing off in the district.
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who → run → district
In the 2024 election, Mackenzie ousted the Democratic incumbent, Susan Wild, winning the election by one percentage point.
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Mackenzie → oust → point
Brooks and Mackenzie had raised nearly the same amounts — about $5.3 million each — as of mid-October.
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Brooks → raise → October
Outside groups have poured millions more into the race.
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groups → pour → race
The race in the 8th Congressional District, in the state’s northeast, is also being closely watched.
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race → watch → northeast
Rep. Rob Bresnahan, the Republican incumbent, is facing off against Paige Cognetti, the Democratic mayor of Scranton.
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Bresnahan → face → Scranton
Bresnahan flipped the seat in 2024, winning by about 2 percentage points.
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Bresnahan → flip → points
Trump won the same district by a much more comfortable margin of nearly 9 points.
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Trump → win → points
Cognetti has made eradicating corruption central to her campaign and attacked her opponent’s past congressional stock trades.
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eradicating → make → trades
Bresnahan has campaigned on lowering taxes and costs and increasing border security.
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Bresnahan → campaign → security
The 10th Congressional District of Pennsylvania is in the south-central part of the state, and includes Harrisburg, the state capital.
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District → include → Harrisburg
Scott Perry, the far-right Republican incumbent endorsed by Trump, is up for a rematch of the 2024 election against Democrat Janelle Stelson.
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Perry → endorse → Stelson
In that election, Perry won by just over 1 percentage point, while Trump won the district by a larger margin of over 5 percentage points.
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Trump → win → points
Some Republicans have been highlighting their differences with the president to appeal to alienated voters, but this may be harder for Perry, a former Freedom Caucus chair who has aligned himself with the president for years.
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who → highlight → years
Perry was involved in Trump’s attempt to illegally overturn the results of the 2020 election, which Trump lost.
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Trump → involve → which
Perry was not charged with a crime, but his cellphone was seized as part of the FBI’s investigation into the matter.
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cellphone → charge → matter
Stelson, a former television news anchor, has campaigned as a moderate alternative to Perry, pitching herself as a candidate with a bipartisan focus committed to reducing the cost of living.
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Stelson → campaign → living
As of mid-October, Stelson had raised $9.2 million, while Perry had raised $6.8 million, and millions more in outside spending have been put into the race.
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millions → raise → race
In the governor’s race, Democratic incumbent Josh Shapiro is seeking a second term.
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Shapiro → seek → term
He faces Republican state treasurer Stacy Garrity, but polls suggest he’s ahead of his opponent.
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he → face → opponent
Shapiro is considered a possible contender for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination.
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Shapiro → consider → nomination
Here are some of the key facts about the election and data points the AP Decision Team will monitor as the votes are tallied:
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votes → monitor → election
When do polls close?
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polls → close → ?
Polls close at 8 p.m. ET.
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Polls → close → ET
The Associated Press will provide vote results and declare winners in races for governor, U.S. House, state Senate and state House.
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Press → provide → governor
How many people voted in the last midterm election?
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people → vote → election
About 5.4 million votes were cast in the 2022 race for the U.S. Senate in Pennsylvania.
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votes → cast → Pennsylvania
How much of the vote is cast by absentee ballot?
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much → cast → ballot
About 23% of votes in the 2022 race for the U.S. Senate in Pennsylvania were cast early or by absentee ballot.
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% → cast → ballot
The latest advance vote totals for Pennsylvania can be found in the AP’s advance vote tracker.
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totals → find → tracker
When are early and absentee votes released?
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votes → release → ?
Counties are expected to release reports for early and absentee votes at varied times over the course of election night.
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Counties → expect → night
Some counties are expected to release results for absentee and early votes in the first report of the night.
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counties → expect → night
…and 9 more, not listed.
The Aporia
