James Talarico leading Ken Paxton in Texas, new poll shows

As of October 29, 2026, a new poll by 254 Labs shows Democrats leading in every statewide contest in Texas, traditionally a solidly Republican state. The poll, conducted between October 21 and 26, surveyed 1,000 registered voters weighted to likely voter targets. In the Senate race, James Talarico leads Ken Paxton by 51% to 43%, with 5% undecided. Among independent voters, Talarico leads nearly two to one at 60% to 31%. Other Democrats also hold narrow advantages: Gina Hinojosa leads Governor Greg Abbott 49% to 46%; Vikki Goodwin leads Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick 48% to 45%; and Nathan Johnson leads Attorney General Mayes Middleton 47% to 45%. President Donald Trump campaigned in Texas on October 29, attempting to boost Paxton's chances.