The French economy could be 'headed for a wall' if the government is unable to pass a deficit-reducing budget soon, its finance minister warned Friday.
uncertain
minister → head → budget
The message came a day ahead of new nationwide protests over the soaring cost of living.
asserted
message → come → living
The national statistics office reported that the country's economy has not grown so far this year and contracted in the period from July to September.
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economy → report → September
France has been rocked by widespread anger over the rising cost of living and inequality, with authorities warning of a 'very high risk of public disorder' this weekend, after protests two weeks ago degenerated into some of the country's worst rioting in years.
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authorities → rock → years
'If we fail to achieve the turnaround outlined in the budget, we are headed straight for a wall,' finance minister Roland Lescure told France Info radio.
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Lescure → fail → radio
'For three quarters now, there has been no growth,' Lescure said.
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Lescure → say → quarters
'The conclusion to be drawn from all this is that, as of 2026, the French economy is at a standstill.'
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economy → draw → standstill
The national statistics office Insee calculated that gross domestic product - a key yardstick of a country's economic health - shrank by 0.1 per cent in the third quarter.
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product → calculate → quarter
Protesters hold a French flag amid clashes during demonstrations in France, October 24
Police officers face protesters near Porte de Vincennes during a demonstration in favour of purchasing power, the protection of public services, and fiscal and social justice, in Paris on October 24
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officers → hold → October
A french Pompier fireman extinguishes a burning barricade in Marseille, southeastern France on October 24
That spelled bad news for the government amid deepening concerns about public finances and growing political tensions ahead of presidential elections next spring.
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That → extinguish → spring
The French economy had already stagnated in the second quarter after shrinking by 0.2 per cent in the first.
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economy → stagnate → first
The new contraction - which effectively puts the eurozone's second-biggest economy on the brink of recession - came as inflation accelerated to 3.4 per cent on an annualised basis in October from 3.1 per cent in September, the fastest rate since January 2024, Insee said.
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Insee → put → January
Analysts said the growth data would indeed make it difficult for the government to reach its overall growth forecast of 0.5 per cent for the current year or even the 0.4 percent anticipated by Insee and the Bank of France.
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government → say → France
And that meant the government would have difficulty in reining in its deficit to 5.0 per cent of GDP next year, already one of the largest budget shortfalls in Europe.
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government → mean → Europe
'We will begin 2027 from a very weak starting point in terms of growth,' said Allianz Trade economist, Maxime Darmet.
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economist → begin → growth
This 'raises questions about the credibility of deficit reduction efforts.'
Worries about France's high debt and deficits have sent its government bond yields soaring in recent weeks.
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Worries → raise → weeks
An underwhelming 2027 budget plan last month fanned concerns that government spending would remain high ahead of next year's presidential elections in which the hard-Right candidate Marine Le Pen, seen as a fiscal populist, stands a chance of winning, according to opinion polls.
uncertain
candidate → fan → polls
However, with growth falling short of expectations, 'the deficit will not shrink' from the 5.4 per cent projected for 2026, Darmet said.
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Darmet → fall → 2026
With interest rates on French debt already at their highest level in over two decades, there was a risk of 'a vicious cycle: weak growth leads markets to demand an even higher risk premium, which in turn weighs on growth, and so on,' the analyst argued.
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analyst → be → growth
'The outlook is rather bleak,' agreed Sylvain Bersinger of the consultancy Bersingeco.
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Bersinger → agree → Bersingeco
One particularly pessimistic scenario would be for 'a prolonged political and budgetary crisis,' particularly 'if the upcoming elections fail to provide a clear political direction'.
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elections → fail → direction
The public debt crisis 'could worsen, plunging the country into an economic and political crisis far more severe than the one we are currently experiencing,' Bersinger said.
uncertain
Bersinger → worsen → one
People clash with police during a demonstration against the high cost of living in Bordeaux, France, October 24
A protester has the word 'Love' written on her glasses as clashes erupted at the Porte de Vincennes on the sidelines of a demonstration in Paris on October 24
Protesters light a fire in La Plaine Square and dance around it on October 24 in Marseille, France
French Interior Minister Laurent Nunez said that this Saturday was looking like 'a very high risk' day for public order and that he would again deploy 70,000 security forces to try to safeguard the country.
Nunez told reporters on Thursday that several radical groups had called on social media for violent gatherings that day, which is also Halloween, and that the response of security forces would be 'extremely firm'.
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response → clash → forces
He highlighted the risk of disorder on Saturday evening in particular once more mainstream demonstrations had ended.
'
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demonstrations → highlight → evening
We are seeing many calls for rallies coming from the labour movement, the radicalised far-Left, and certain radicalised "Yellow Vests" websites, urging people to attend rallies on public streets starting at 8.00pm (on October 31) in many cities across France, accompanied by various messages which are, let's just, say quite radical,' he said.
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he → see → messages
'October 31 is a day that poses a very high risk to public order,' he added.
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he → pose → order
The Interior Ministry has said 410,000 people took part in marches last Saturday when authorities deployed 70,000 police, helping to avert a repeat of the looting and vandalism that swept many cities on October 17.
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that → say → October
Labour leaders and students have urged further protests on October 31 and a nationwide strike on November 5, saying frustration over wages, living costs and public services was spreading far beyond the student movement that first mobilised last month.
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that → urge → movement
The unrest has already cost an estimated $2 billion in damage and lost revenue, with some 2,400 stores across the country targeted.
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stores → cost → country
Protesters light a fire in La Plaine Square and dance around it on October 24 in Marseille, France
People stand as objects burn at a barricade during a demonstration against the high cost of living in Bordeaux, France, October 24
Two masked protesters in black stand near a large white wooden door tagged with red graffiti reading 'ACAB' in Bordeaux, France, October 24
French consumer confidence fell to a 13-year low this month.
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confidence → light → low
That bodes ill for November and December, which together typically account for 40 per cent of annual retail turnover.
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which → bode → turnover
'Commercial activities in city centres have been brought to a standstill,' said Alain Di Crescenzo, president of the French Chamber of Commerce, about the days of protest.
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Crescenzo → bring → protest
'Stores that were looted must recover, repair and reopen, but then there are all those that weren't broken into but had to pull down the shutters and have made zero sales,' he added.
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he → loot → sales
Over a quarter of the outlets damaged during protests remain shut, and many stores are likely to be shuttered protectively ahead of the next protests.
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stores → damage → protests
Shops targeted included outlets from major luxury brands like Hermes, Louis Vuitton and Burberry, but also Carrefour supermarkets and corner shops.
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Shops → target → Hermes
The Chamber of Commerce estimates losses to retailers to exceed €1 billion, while Morningstar DBRS said the total could approach $2 billion including uninsured damage and lost revenue, and rise further if protests escalate.
uncertain
protests → estimate → damage
Besides the direct impact on looted stores, fears of further violence drove many more to close as a precautionary measure, turning major shopping streets into ghost towns ahead of the October 24 protests, during which security was tighter but 50 stores were still broken into.
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stores → loot → which
Most store managers, avidly monitoring neighbourhood watch communication groups, will only decide on Friday whether to stay open on the day of the demonstration.
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managers → monitor → demonstration
A crowd gathered in Porte d'Aix Square set rubbish containers on fire on October 24 in Marseille, France
People clash with police during a demonstration against the high cost of living in Bordeaux, France, 24 October
People clash with police officers during a demonstration against the high cost of living in Bordeaux, France, October 24
A police officer wearing a helmet with blue bands aims an LBD 40 riot control launcher amid an ongoing intervention during a demonstration against the high cost of living in Bordeaux, France, October 24
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officer → gather → Bordeaux
Burberry's store on the fashionable Rue Saint-Honoré, which was looted and damaged in the October 17 riots, reopened on Tuesday after 10 days.
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which → loot → days
…and 7 more, not listed.
The Aporia
