Democrats have long known heartbreak in Texas.
asserted
Democrats → know → Texas
FORT WORTH, Texas, Oct 30 - Texas has been the Democratic Party’s great, unrealized hope for three decades: a vast and fast-changing state that often seems within reach, only to slip away.
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that → change → reach
On the eve of a midterm election that could decide control of the US Senate, Democrats are dreaming again about breaking the Republican stranglehold on the Lone Star State, even as they brace for heartbreak.
uncertain
they → decide → heartbreak
Most polls show Democrat James Talarico, a 37-year-old state representative, seminarian and former schoolteacher, narrowly ahead of Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton.
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Talarico → show → Paxton
In the governor's race, Democratic state Representative Gina Hinojosa is trailing three-term Republican Governor Greg Abbott by just a few points.
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Hinojosa → trail → points
No Democrat has won statewide office in Texas since 1994, the longest drought in the nation.
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Democrat → win → nation
Ending it would reverberate far beyond this state of 31 million people, redrawing America’s political map ahead of a wide-open contest for the presidency in 2028.
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Ending → end → 2028
“This is the most competitive election between the parties that we have seen here since the early stages of Republican hegemony,” said James Henson, director of the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin (UT).
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Henson → see → Austin
“If Talarico or Hinojosa win, it’s a political earthquake.
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it → win → ?
For the first time since 1972, Democrats are contesting every state and federal race, testament to a party that says it is investing in its future rather than just individual candidates.
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it → contest → future
Interviews with more than 40 voters, activists and organizers on both sides of the partisan divide revealed three potential cracks in the Republican coalition -- Latinos jolted by President Donald Trump’s immigration raids; conservative women uneasy about Paxton’s alleged marital infidelity and, to a lesser degree, Republican men squeezed by rising prices and the war with Iran.
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Interviews → reveal → Iran
Tyson Jex, 33, a suburban father of three, has always voted a straight Republican ticket.
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Jex → vote → ticket
This year he’s undecided.
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he → ’ → ?
“We have conservative people in power, but it doesn’t seem like anything changes,” he said.
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he → have → power
Many Texas Republicans remain confident in their chances on November 3, believing the political fundamentals are still in their favor.
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fundamentals → remain → favor
About 49% of Texas voters identify with or lean toward the Republican Party, compared with 40% for Democrats, according to UT polling.
uncertain
% → identify → polling
Then there's the money: Republicans have spent over $300 million on ads supporting Paxton, dwarfing the $102 million spent for Talarico, according to FEC data.
uncertain
Republicans → be → data
Dave Carney, Abbott’s chief strategist and a veteran of Republican campaigns in Texas, added that the party’s ground game is peaking late by design.
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game → add → design
“We’re going to win, absolutely," he said, referring to both Republican candidates.
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he → go → candidates
For their part, Talarico and Hinojosa have focused relentlessly on the cost of living and the outsize political influence of billionaires like Elon Musk, who poured nearly $160 million into Texas to buoy Paxton.
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who → focus → Paxton
“We have an affordability crisis because we have a corruption crisis,” Talarico said at a rally in the city of Temple last week to thunderous applause.
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Talarico → have → applause
Republicans, meanwhile, have leaned into culture-war issues.
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Republicans → lean → issues
In ads, Paxton has hammered Talarico over his support for transgender rights and branded him a heretic for his progressive Christianity.
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Paxton → hammer → Christianity
Rallying for Paxton last week at a brewery in the small town of Sanger, just north of Dallas, speakers riled up a raucous crowd by painting Talarico as a radical leftist and describing the election stakes as existential.
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speakers → rally → stakes
“If we lose one race this cycle, Texas will be a battleground state for the rest of our natural lives,” warned state Representative Andy Hopper.
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Hopper → lose → lives
Neither the Paxton nor the Talarico campaign made its candidates available for an interview.
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candidates → make → interview
LATINO BACKLASH
Tarrant County, home to the city of Fort Worth, is the most conservative of Texas’ big urban counties and is seen as a bellwether.
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County → see → bellwether
In the 2020 presidential race, Joe Biden was the first Democrat to carry it since Lyndon Johnson in 1964, winning by less than 2,000 votes; Trump easily won it back in 2024.
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Trump → carry → 2024
The challenges facing Republicans among Latinos and women voters come into focus here.
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challenges → face → focus
Latinos helped deliver Texas to Trump in 2024, giving him 55% of their votes in a dramatic swing away from Democrats, according to exit polling.
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Latinos → help → polling
Now, their enthusiasm is surging in the opposite direction.
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enthusiasm → surge → direction
Among likely Latino voters, Talarico leads 54% to 41% and Hinojosa 56% to 42%, UT polling shows.
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polling → lead → %
About 1.56 million Latinos had cast ballots as of Wednesday, nearly double the number who had voted at the same point in 2022's midterms, according to TargetSmart, a data firm that works mainly with Democrats.
uncertain
that → cast → Democrats
Latinos make up roughly 28% of early voters, up from 20% at the same time four years ago, the data shows, while white, rural turnout is lagging significantly behind 2022 levels.
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turnout → make → levels
“Higher Latino turnout is almost certainly going to be good for the Democratic candidates,” said Tom Bonier, a senior adviser at the firm.
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Bonier → go → firm
While Hispanics account for nearly a third of Texas’ eligible voters, their 2024 turnout trailed that of non-Latino whites by more than 20 points, according to the Census Bureau.
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turnout → account → Bureau
This year feels different for people like Rick Arredondo, a 52-year-old welder in Fort Worth’s heavily Latino northside.
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year → feel → northside
He rolled up to a polling station on his bike last week, eager to vote for the first time in his life.
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He → roll → life
He said he would cast his ballot for Democrats after immigration agents detained and deported his neighbor.
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agents → say → neighbor
“Anybody that’s my skin color is fair game,” said Arredondo, a US-born citizen who now carries his passport for fear of being swept up in a raid.
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who → ’ → raid
…and 21 more, not listed.
The Aporia
