The Blue Jays have no idea what the economic landscape of Major League Baseball will look like whenever the current labour dispute with the players’ union comes to an end.
asserted
dispute → have → end
The owners seem intent on adding a salary cap, while the players remain vehemently opposed.
asserted
players → seem → cap
A lack of progress in recent talks all but guarantees a lockout when the current collective agreement expires on Dec. 1.
asserted
agreement → guarantee → Dec.
Jays president Mark Shapiro is on record saying it will be business as usual for the Jays, at least for now.
asserted
it → say → Jays
That suggests they will continue their free-spending ways for the next month before any new rules go into effect.
uncertain
rules → suggest → effect
A flurry of activity is expected as top free agents look for new homes and teams attempt to finalize trades before a roster freeze goes into effect.
Here’s a closer look at what to expect from the Jays this off-season, now that the Milwaukee Brewers have closed out the playoffs with their first World Series title:
Free agents (seven)
OF George Springer, RHP Shane Bieber, RHP Max Scherzer, RHP Paul Sewald, RHP Yimi García, RHP Jameson Taillon, LHP Patrick Corbin
Team option (one)
OF Myles Straw ($8-million U.S. club option, $1.75-million buyout)
Arbitration eligibles (eight)
Projected salaries from MLB Trade Rumors:
INF Ernie Clement ($7.6 million), RHP José Soriano ($5.6 million), RHP Louis Varland ($3.8 million), INF Josh Smith ($3.7 million), OF Nathan Lukes ($2.1 million), RHP Spencer Arrighetti ($1.9 million), RHP Bowden Francis ($1.3 million), INF/OF Davis Schneider ($1.3 million)
Out-of-options (four)
RHP Jake Bloss, LHP Brendon Little, OF Jonatan Clase, Clement
Money matters
The Jays have about $55 million coming off the books in pending free agents.
asserted
Jays → expect → agents
Add the salaries of Kevin Gausman, Daulton Varsho and Jeff Hoffman who were moved at the Aug. 2 trade deadline and that figure grows to more than $100 million.
asserted
figure → add → million
A chunk of that will be redirected to players due raises.
asserted
chunk → redirect → raises
Dylan Cease, Andrés Giménez, Kazuma Okamoto, Cody Ponce, Tyler Rogers and Alejandro Kirk are among those who will see a bump in pay of at least $4 million.
asserted
who → see → million
The Jays also still owe Hoffman $3.75 million in 2027.
asserted
Jays → owe → 2027
Last year, they operated with a payroll of about $284 million.
asserted
they → operate → million
They are currently hovering around $230 million before arbitration cases are factored in.
asserted
cases → hover → million
Shapiro previously said the Jays expect to have similar resources next year, which should leave them with $50 million plus to spend on 2027 payroll.
asserted
which → say → payroll
Biggest needs
Middle-of-the-order bat: The Jays aren’t going anywhere until they fix their lineup.
asserted
they → go → lineup
No team hit fewer homers or scored fewer runs than the Jays this season.
asserted
team → hit → Jays
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.‘s regression played a big role, but even if he had performed well there wasn’t nearly enough offence elsewhere in the lineup.
asserted
he → play → lineup
They need to do something big and signing Seiya Suzuki (.823 OPS in five years with the Chicago Cubs) or Teruaki Sato (available through Japan’s posting system after a Triple Crown season with the Hanshin Tigers) would certainly qualify.
asserted
They → need → Tigers
Clement is the incumbent and a fan favourite, but he also hit .203 with a .493 on-base-plus-slugging percentage after the all-star break.
asserted
he → hit → break
The Jays are already in good shape with Cease, Soriano, Trey Yesavage and Ponce as projected starters.
asserted
Jays → project → starters
They also have Spencer Miles, Arrighetti and Bloss around for depth while José Berrios and Francis will eventually return from Tommy John surgery.
asserted
Berrios → have → surgery
Despite the long list, they would benefit from adding at least one more proven arm.
asserted
they → benefit → arm
Re-signing Bieber to a one-year deal would make sense.
asserted
signing → Re → sense
The Jays need power and Keys has plenty of it with 28 homers in 100 minor-league games this past season.
asserted
Keys → need → games
The issue is that the Jays have nowhere to put him.
asserted
Jays → have → him
Guerrero has first base locked down for the next decade, while Okamoto is signed for another three seasons to play third.
asserted
Okamoto → have → third
With Anthony Santander a candidate to start at designated hitter, Keys appears to be the odd man out.
asserted
Keys → start → hitter
Teams are always looking for catching help and the Jays have two starting-calibre options.
asserted
Jays → look → options
If the Jays are involved in a blockbuster trade this winter, they might have no choice but to include one of their two backstops.
uncertain
they → involve → backstops
That seems unlikely, however, because keeping both would ensure the position remains a strength.
asserted
position → seem → both
The outfielder has been underrated the last two seasons.
asserted
outfielder → underrate → ?
He isn’t flashy, but he gets the job done with a .722 OPS dating back to the start of 2025, which is above league average.
asserted
which → get → average
However, with Addison Barger set to return to right field next year and the Jays likely reserving left for a middle-of-the-order bat, Lukes would be relegated to part-time duty.
asserted
Lukes → set → duty
There are others who could fill a bench role, which means they might look to deal him this winter.
uncertain
they → be → him
Lukes wouldn’t fetch a lot in return, but he could be used to add another arm for the bullpen.
uncertain
he → fetch → bullpen
Important off-season dates
Nov. 1: Gold Glove winners are announced
Nov. 2: Free agents become available to sign with any team at 5 p.m. ET
Nov. 9-12: Baseball Writers’ Association of America Awards week: rookie of the year, manager of the year, reliever of the year, Cy Young and MVP
Nov. 10-12: General managers meetings in Las Vegas
Nov. 17-19: Owners meetings in New York City
Nov. 17: Last day to protect prospects from Rule 5 draft
Nov. 17: Deadline for players to accept qualifying offers (4 p.m. ET)
Nov. 20:
asserted
players → announce → offers
Dec. 1: Collective agreement expires (11:59 p.m. ET)
asserted
agreement → expire → ?
This year’s committee will be voting on managers, executives and umpires whose greatest contributions came in the 1980s or later.
asserted
contributions → vote → 1980s
The Aporia
