Why Alaska, for once, is front and centre in midterms
Democrats pan Republicans' suggestion that confusion over namesakes could sway consequential race
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confusion → pan → race
The presence of two candidates named Dan Sullivan on the Alaska ballot for a Senate election has attracted attention for about six months now in U.S. political news coverage.
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presence → name → coverage
Right-wing media outlets have suspected it was not a mere coincidence, but an example of chicanery, and an investigation by the New York Times resulted in an article Wednesday that suggests a co-ordinated effort by individuals associated with Democrat Mary Peltola's campaign to recruit anyone with the same name as Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan.
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that → suspect → Sullivan
A spokesperson for the Peltola campaign had previously said it had "no involvement with either Sullivan campaign."
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it → say → campaign
While political action committees and campaigns for both parties have occasionally engaged in similar "ballot-stacking" tactics that appeared to have the express purpose of siphoning votes from well-established politicians, the Alaska scenario is perhaps the most high-profile example yet seen.
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scenario → engage → politicians
Attorney General Todd Blanche said Wednesday it "should be" illegal, and U.S. President Donald Trump has suggested that criminal prosecutions should result, without specifying on what grounds, or for which particular individuals.
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prosecutions → say → on
Here's a look at how we got here and the questions that have emerged ahead of Tuesday's midterms.
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that → get → midterms
Several candidates appeared on the Senate ballot in the spring, including incumbent Dan Sullivan, whose middle name is Scott.
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name → appear → Sullivan
A retired schoolteacher, he is a neophyte in terms of political office and has registered as a Democrat in the past.
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he → register → past
In June, the state's Republican lieutenant-governor disqualified Dan J. Sullivan under a state regulation that forbids ballot names that are "confusing or misleading to voters or compromises the fairness or neutrality of the ballot."
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that → disqualify → ballot
A campaign spokesperson for Democratic Senate hopeful Mary Peltola, seen in Anchorage, Alaska, on Oct. 14, has previously said it had 'no involvement with either Sullivan campaign.'
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it → see → campaign
But a state judge's reversal of that decision was upheld by the Alaska Supreme Court.
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reversal → uphold → Court
The gist of their ruling was that there is no statutory or constitutional mechanism to remove a person from the ballot if they had met the qualifications to register as a candidate, no matter the origin story of the candidacy.
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they → be → candidacy
"There's a lot of different ways you can distinguish these two candidates on the ballot, short of precluding access to the ballot to begin with," Aimee Oravec, an Alaska justice, said during oral arguments in the case.
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Oravec → be → case
Why it matters
What the composition of the Senate will look like after its three-dozen races are called is seen as an unpredictable puzzle by pollsters.
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races → matter → pollsters
Republicans hold a 53-47 majority and Democrats need four pickups to regain control of the chamber, so the race between Peltola and the incumbent Sullivan could be pivotal.
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race → hold → Peltola
Sullivan was elected to office in 2014 by two percentage points, which translated to just over 6,000 more votes than his opponent.
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which → elect → opponent
In the all-party primary in August to determine the top four candidates, the candidate derisively nicknamed "Decoy Dan" by some garnered 4,107 votes, about 2 per cent of the total vote.
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candidate → determine → vote
This despite the fact he's reportedly spent no money on campaign staff or media.
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he → spend → staff
Democrats have defended the manoeuvre as an example of political hardball.
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Democrats → defend → hardball
They have pointed to examples nationally of Republican-led efforts to place candidates on ballots as a diversionary tactic, and Alaska Democrats alleged in 2024 that Republicans were behind a scheme to get an incarcerated candidate — who's running again this year — on the ballot to siphon votes from their preferred U.S. House candidate.
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who → point → candidate
Peltola and her campaign haven't fully addressed the Times allegations, merely calling it a "diversion."
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Peltola → address → it
The revelation could backfire for Peltola, a Yup'ik who became the first Indigenous person from Alaska to ever serve in Congress when she won a House seat in 2022.
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she → backfire → 2022
In addition to Sullivan, Republican Lisa Murkowski, the other U.S. senator from Alaska, is calling for her to come clean about her knowledge of the scheme.
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her → call → scheme
Why the Hispanic vote could sway the outcome of the U.S. midterm elections
The gambit could also just breed more general cynicism in a country where unfounded allegations of vote fraud in the 2020 election led to a riot at the U.S. Capitol.
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allegations → sway → Capitol
"How does this increase voter confidence in our election process?" the Juneau Empire, the newspaper out of the state capital, asked in a recent editorial.
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Empire → increase → editorial
After the Times article landed, Republican Gov. Mike Dunleavy said he was directing the state's Department of Public Safety to investigate the scheme to see if criminal or civil offences occurred.
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offences → land → scheme
"Deliberately tricking voters into casting their ballots for someone else strikes at the integrity of our elections," said Dunleavy.
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Dunleavy → trick → elections
Several days before the Times exposé landed, the Justice Department filed a lawsuit to demand that Alaska be blocked from certifying a Peltola win if Dan J. Sullivan remains on the ballot.
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Sullivan → land → ballot
Trump said he had ordered the department to do that and no criticism emerged in Congress from Republicans who regularly lobbed accusations about a politicized Justice Department under Democratic predecessor Joe Biden.
Legal questions
It is hard to predict if any criminality occurred, given what is known so far.
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what → say → questions
But vote-siphoning schemes have led to charges for individuals before.
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schemes → lead → individuals
As for the Justice Department suit, the U.S. Constitution grants states the power to run their own elections.
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Constitution → grant → elections
Election experts are pessimistic about its chances for success, and even the Trump-friendly Wall Street Journal editorial page called it a "legal Hail Mary."
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page → call → it
"The statute simply doesn't let the Department of Justice enjoin certification," Derek Muller, University of Notre Dame law professor, told the Associated Press last week.
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Muller → let → Press
"The lawsuit could well be mooted by a wide Democratic victory or a narrow Republican one, and if not, the court will likely dismiss it next month."
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court → moot → it
The lawsuit asks the court to block certification until an investigation determines whether enough voters were fooled in a way that swings the election.
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that → ask → election
It doesn't explain how that would happen, and the right to privacy provides another complication, as votes are supposed to be confidential.
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votes → explain → complication
Election expert Rick Hasen called the Times report a "bombshell" and said perjury prosecutions were possible if it could be established someone lied about involvement in the scheme.
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someone → call → scheme
But Hasen, UCLA law professor and director of the Safeguarding Democracy Project, wrote Wednesday on his blog that he didn't think the new reporting changed the equation on the Justice Department suit.
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reporting → write → suit
Hasen also said he didn't see any mechanism for the government to criminalize Dan J. Sullivan's campaign.
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government → say → campaign
…and 11 more, not listed.
The Aporia
