Claims extracted
19
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
21%
4 of 19 hedged
("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
not political
takes no side on a contested political question
Publisher signals
65/100
Evening Standard's corrections and
hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
1
Economy/Business
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Robert Jenrick, Reform UK’s Treasury spokesman, made a similar claim on GB News on Thursday.
uncertain
Jenrick → make → Thursday
Speaking of the Chancellor, Mr Jenrick said: “By his own figures he’s saying that living standards for people in this country will decline every single year for the next five years.”
asserted
standards → speak → years
Evaluation
The OBR’s forecast sees real household disposable income (RHDI) – which is likely the measure both politicians are referring to – fall this year, but rise in each subsequent year until 2031.
asserted
politicians → see → 2031
Compared with its previous forecast in March, RHDI annual growth has been downgraded in some years by the OBR and upgraded in others.
asserted
growth → compare → others
However, thanks to the fall in 2026, RHDI is lower in each year of the forecast than the OBR had previously estimated.
asserted
OBR → estimate → forecast
It appears this is what Mrs Badenoch was referring to.
asserted
Badenoch → appear → what
It is unclear what Mr Jenrick was referring to as there does not appear to be any measure in the OBR forecast by which living standards decline every single year.
uncertain
standards → refer → which
According to the OBR’s report, RHDI is forecast to fall this year, but then rise in each of the following years in the forecast.
uncertain
RHDI → accord → forecast
It falls by 0.6% in 2026, then rises by 0.2% in 2027, 0.9% in 2028, 0.7% in 2029, 1.1% in 2030, and 1.0% in 2031.
asserted
It → fall → 2031
Compared with its March 2026 forecast, RHDI annual growth was downgraded by 1.3 percentage points this year and 0.5 points in 2027.
asserted
growth → compare → 2027
It was upgraded by 0.2 percentage points in 2028 and 2030, while there was no change to the 2029 forecast.
asserted
It → upgrade → forecast
Chart 2.6 in the OBR report shows that compared with March’s forecast, RHDI in this forecast is lower each fiscal year than what was previously expected.
asserted
what → show → forecast
This is what the Conservative Party pointed to when asked to clarify Mrs Badenoch’s comment.
asserted
Party → point → comment
RHDI falls in 2026, but rises each of the next five years – growing by £766 to 2031.
asserted
RHDI → fall → 2031
However, compared with the March forecast, RHDI will be £356 lower in 2026 than previously thought, and £250 lower in 2030.
asserted
RHDI → compare → 2030
What other forecasts could measure living standards?
uncertain
forecasts → measure → standards
The OBR calls real GDP per person “an indicator of average living standards”.
asserted
OBR → call → standards
However, this increases in every year of the forecast.
asserted
this → increase → forecast
Read More
Reform UK has been contacted to clarify Mr Jenrick’s comments.
asserted
UK → read → comments
The Aporia
