RIO DE JANEIRO (AP) — Flávio Bolsonaro is now in Miami after fleeing to the U.S. following his stunning defeat to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in Brazil’s presidential elections.
asserted
Bolsonaro → flee → elections
Bolsonaro has refused to concede and has positioned himself as the “leader of Brazil” while declaring that there was electoral fraud, without providing evidence.
asserted
Bolsonaro → refuse → evidence
In a letter on Wednesday, the senator for Rio de Janeiro said he relocated to the U.S. because he is the victim of political and judicial persecution.
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he → say → persecution
The departure of the 45-year-old ally of U.S. President Donald Trump from Brazil days after losing the runoff vote is sending shock waves across Brazil’s right and reverberating across the region, and it may spell more trouble for relations between Washington and Brasilia.
uncertain
it → lose → Washington
Here’s what to know about the possible impacts of Bolsonaro’s exodus from Brazil.
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Here → ’ → Brazil
The shake-up of Brazil’s right
Bolsonaro has promised to lead the opposition to Lula from abroad.
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Bolsonaro → promise → Lula
“I will say what you cannot say, and I will assume the risks you cannot take,” he said in a letter on Wednesday, addressing himself to political representatives of his party.
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he → say → party
But Bolsonaro’s move to Miami complicates that vow, analysts say, leaving a power vacuum on the Brazilian right, which had united around Flávio’s presidential bid.
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which → complicate → bid
His father, former President Jair Bolsonaro, appointed him as his political heir last December.
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father → appoint → heir
The elder Bolsonaro is serving a 27-year sentence for attempting a coup.
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Bolsonaro → serve → coup
“Flávio’s departure, along with the difficulty of directing the process from a distance and all the criticism he is likely to face for saying he wouldn’t flee and then fleeing, is likely to weaken him,” said Carlos Melo, a political-science professor at Insper university.
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Melo → direct → university
But as a political force, the right may lose neither influence nor impact following his departure due to its gains in Congress, said Luciana Santana, a political scientist at the Federal University of Alagoas.
uncertain
Santana → lose → Alagoas
“The group in Congress retains instruments to block proposals, negotiate with government and dispute the public agenda,” Santana said.
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Santana → retain → agenda
Impact on the global far right
A Bolsonaro win would have aligned Brazil with many of its regional neighbors, where conservatives have swept to power in seven presidential elections in 18 months.
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conservatives → align → months
Across much of Latin America, voters fed up with rising crime have rewarded presidential candidates promising to restore order.
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voters → feed → order
From Peru’s Keiko Fujimori to Colombia’s Abelardo de la Espriella, newly elected conservatives have courted Trump while taking their cues from El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele, whose sweeping gang crackdown has sharply reduced homicides at the cost of mass arrests and suspended civil liberties.
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crackdown → elect → liberties
Bolsonaro’s defeat is a setback for the far-right in the region and beyond, as it stops its ascension to the presidency of an economic powerhouse in the region that has significant diplomatic weight, said Santana.
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Santana → stop → weight
But Lula’s win will not necessarily translate into the overall weakening of the movement, she said.
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she → translate → movement
As well as the gains in Congress, Flávio received nearly 60 million votes, indicating the competitiveness of the movement in Brazil.
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Flávio → receive → Brazil
Beyond Brazil’s borders, the international repercussions of Flávio’s flight depend on how the episode will be interpreted.
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episode → depend → flight
“Bolsonaro’s escape can be used by international networks as a symbol of alleged persecution.
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escape → use → persecution
This could mobilize those who most strongly identify with the movement,” said Santana.
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Santana → mobilize → movement
As congratulations poured in from Brazil’s allies and rivals around the world, Trump suggested Monday, without providing evidence, that Lula’s reelection was “rigged.”
uncertain
reelection → pour → evidence
But when asked about Bolsonaro’s assertion on Wednesday that he was the “rightful president-elect of Brazil” — a term the defeated candidate later softened to “leader of Brazil” — the U.S. president said he would not comment.
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he → ask → Brazil
Instead, Trump said he has given Bolsonaro a “pass” to come into the country.
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he → say → country
“I won’t get involved,” Trump said, before repeating his claim that the election was “very strange.”
uncertain
election → involve → claim
Lula’s win cements Latin America’s most populous country and largest economy as a counterweight to Washington and limits Trump’s drive to tighten his grip on the Western Hemisphere.
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win → cement → Hemisphere
Lula has championed Brazil’s long tradition of nonalignment, cultivating ties with competing powers.
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Lula → champion → powers
His government deepened trade ties with China and sought greater global influence through BRICS, a group of emerging economies.
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government → deepen → economies
While Bolsonaro’s presence in the U.S. adds “a new layer of problems to the already complicated bilateral relationship,” it is unlikely to be decisive, said Oliver Stuenkel, a political scientist and researcher at the Carnegie Endowment think-tank.
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Stuenkel → add → tank
While there will now be two Bolsonaro brothers potentially lobbying the U.S. government on behalf of specific policies vis-a-vis Brazil, whether Washington heeds any such calls remains to be seen, Stuenkel said.
“Either Trump will pursue a pragmatic stance and basically recognize that U.S. pressure to elect Flávio failed (…) or there will continue to be continued friction,” he said.
asserted
he → lobby → Flávio
The Aporia
