As the dust continues to settle after Tuesday's Israeli election, it is becoming clearer by the hour that the route forward has a mix of political hurdles and landmines.
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route → continue → hurdles
The inconclusive result, showing neither the pro-Netanyahu parties nor the so-called 'change' bloc gaining enough support to form a majority coalition government, means weeks of messy and complicated negotiations.
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parties → show → negotiations
For a country that has already gone through immense upheaval in recent years, this could put even further strain on the community, particularly given how deep-rooted ideological differences will play into the process.
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differences → go → process
However, politics is about power and influence, and how to wield them.
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politics → wield → them
So pragmatism (if you want to call it that) could shine through and lead to an outcome.
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you → want → outcome
Here are four ways the situation could play out.
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situation → play → ?
Neither of the blocs so far have enough seats in the Israeli Knesset to form a majority coalition, which would be 61 seats out of the 120 up for grabs.
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which → have → grabs
As it stands the pro-Netanyahu camp, which is essentially his current coalition, is on track to secure 53 seats.
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which → stand → seats
They include the prime minister's own Likud party, the ultra-Orthodox Jewish parties of United Torah Judaism and Shas, and the far-right nationalist parties of Otzma Yehudit and Religious Zionism, led by Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich.
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They → include → Ben
A drop in support for those two men has been part of the problem for Likud, chipping away at the foundations that have been propping up Netanyahu during the last coalition.
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that → chip → coalition
The world where this grouping somehow forms a minority government seems to exist in an alternate reality, as all the other parties in the Knesset have campaigned on being 'anti-Bibi' and would rail against it.
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parties → form → it
There could — and the word could is doing a lot of heavy lifting — be a situation where the 'change' camp forms a minority government.
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camp → do → government
Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party, Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid's Together list (B'Yachad), Yair Golan's Democrats, and Avigdor Liberman's Yisrael Beiteinu could cobble together some government that operates in the Knesset.
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that → cobble → Knesset
But to do so, they would need guarantees from the Arab-Israeli parties that they would not block their agenda, even if those parties are not part of the new coalition government.
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parties → do → government
Given the surge in support for the Joint List and the United Arab List from Arab-Israeli voters, it is hard to see a scenario where they would be willing to trade influence inside a new government to sit outside it and play nice when they have record representation.
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they → give → representation
Majority change government, with the Arab parties
That's why there is a lot of talk about a majority government formed with the support of the Arab-Israeli parties, bringing Eisenkot and his fellow 'change' challengers into office.
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That → be → office
Eisenkot had said before the election he would not work with them, while Liberman announced he was totally opposed to it.
But Golan insisted less than 24 hours after the vote that putting aside differences with the Joint List and the United Arab List was the path forward, if it meant the end of the third Netanyahu-era.
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it → say → era
That bad blood could be difficult to scrub out of any coalition fabric, and the right wing parties — particularly Netanyahu's Likud — have already ratcheted up the anti-Arab rhetoric, accusing the parties of stealing the election as they cast doubt on how they possibly secured so much support.
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they → scrub → support
There is a reason why Netanyahu is Israel's longest serving prime minister — he is a canny operator and negotiator.
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he → be → ?
While being faced with a sense of his political mortality, Netanyahu could look to convince some of his most ardent opponents to join forces with him.
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Netanyahu → face → him
This could take the shape of Bennet defecting to his camp or Liberman choosing to work with him over the Arab parties.
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Liberman → take → parties
Loyalty to parties is not guaranteed as well.
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Loyalty → guarantee → parties
There could be defections within the parties with people breaking away from one side and joining another, even if the party as a whole does not move.
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party → break → whole
It is also not totally outside the realm of possibility that he would make an approach to someone like Eisenkot to try to resolve the deadlock, pitching a government where the pair and their parties worked together in a broad coalition.
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pair → make → coalition
Netanyahu entered into a coalition with Benny Gantz and his Blue and White party in 2020, and had agreed to alternate the prime ministership.
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Netanyahu → enter → ministership
But that partnership crumbled before Gantz got his shot at the top job.
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Gantz → crumble → job
The issue is that Eisenkot and Yashar have made being 'anti-Bibi' their entire brand during this campaign, describing the prime minister as basically everything from corrupt to morally bankrupt.
But if that hatchet can be buried, something like this could happen.
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something → make → this
Netanyahu and Eisenkot have to convince Israeli President Issac Herzog they are best suited to form government in one of the above ways.
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they → have → ways
Herzog has seven days from when the official results are finalised on November 4 to decide who gets the mandate.
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who → have → mandate
It is worth remembering that when the final results of the election are known, the Knesset is set in position and members are sworn in, even if the government remains in caretaker mode with Netanyahu still as the prime minister.
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Netanyahu → remember → minister
Israeli media has speculated that in that event, the anti-Netanyahu forces may try to use their numbers to push legislative changes even if there is no new government.
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forces → speculate → changes
Among the measures that could be pursued could be laws banning someone from serving as prime minister if they were indicted for crimes.
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they → pursue → crimes
Netanyahu is still battling corruption charges.
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Netanyahu → battle → charges
If negotiations on forming a coalition do not yield a result within 28 days and a possible 14-day extension, the president can choose another leader to try with the same allotted time.
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president → form → time
Failing that, Knesset members vote on a third candidate for a final attempt.
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members → fail → attempt
If they fail after 21 days, the Knesset is automatically dissolved and new elections have to be called within 90 days.
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elections → fail → days
This process to break the deadlock will take months, and it is an outcome Herzog wants to avoid.
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Herzog → break → months
Between 2019 and 2022, Israel held five different elections.
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Israel → hold → elections
It may be great for political nerds, but not necessarily for political stability in a country dealing with immense social upheaval and major conflicts on multiple fronts.
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It → deal → fronts
The Aporia
