College football picks: Conference games are the closest they have been in at least a half century

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Cite

Olson, E. (2026, October 28). College football picks: Conference games are the closest they have been in at least a half century. Toronto Star. https://www.thestar.com/sports/football/college-football-picks-conference-games-are-the-closest-they-have-been-in-at-least-a-half-century/article_169a9544-14b2-55f3-95d9-7d54e54dda3c.html

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Toronto Star · collected 2026-10-28 · by Eric Olson

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Story summary

As of late October 2026, college football conference games have seen unprecedented parity with the most one-score games since at least 1973. There were 128 conference games decided by eight or fewer points through Week 8 this season, marking a significant increase from previous years. The average point differential in these matchups is only 13.9 points, the lowest since records began in 1973. Notably, the ACC leads with 51% of its games decided by single digits, followed closely by the Big Ten and SEC. This trend suggests a competitive landscape where upsets are more common than ever before, making each game unpredictable and exciting for fans and bettors alike.

Written for “College Football Picks And Predictions” on 2026-10-28, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.

Story

📰 College Football Picks And Predictions
Sports · 1 article(s) covering the same event.

Compared with similar articles

This article reads unscored and hedges 7% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
Fox News
Hedges 4 of 41 claims Outlet record 70/100
“The articles discuss different aspects of college football, with Article A focusing on a specific upcoming game between Ole Miss and Texas, while Article B discusses broader trends in conference games across the season.”
How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
29
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
7%
2 of 29 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
not political
takes no side on a contested political question
Publisher signals
64/100
Toronto Star's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
1
Sports
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-10-28 · how these are computed

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

Toronto Star · 10106 article(s) · 27 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 27 correction(s)
2026-10-26
Correction
2026-10-24
Correction
2026-10-07
Correction
2026-09-24
Correction

Who wrote this

Eric Olson
18 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 Gators could have QB Aaron Philo (shoulder) back or go with Tramell Jones again.
🔮 Georgia and Indiana would receive first-round byes in the College Football Playoff as top-four seeds on the 12-team bracket based on The Associated Press Top 25 released Sunday and Notre Dame and BYU would host first-round games.
🔮 College football fans may get a chance to catch their breath Saturday.
🔮 “Saturday’s a game we could have won.
🔮 Miami and BYU would hold the top two seeds on the 12-team College Football Playoff bracket based on The Associated Press Top 25 released Sunday and UCLA would make its first-ever appearance in the field.
🔮 The Hurricanes are set to take over the top poll spot for the first time since 2002 after beating rival Florida State 43-35 in a double-overtime thriller.
🔮 The Ducks brought in a highly regarded class of transfers to go with 14 returning starters, including a quarterback projected to be one of the first players taken in the 2027 NFL draft.
🔮 “The way we play, it’s maybe not all the time the coolest thing, the visual, but we’re going to try to be physical,” Nebraska coach Matt Rhule said.
🔮 That said, Ohio State coach Ryan Day says his team will be better for going through the experience — if the No. 5 Buckeyes are able to leave Kinnick Stadium with a win over No. 14 Iowa on Saturday.
🔮 Florida would be in the 12-team College Football Playoff bracket for the first time based on The Associated Press Top 25 released Sunday and the Gators would host a first-round game.
Also by Eric Olson
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 18 articles by Eric Olson →

Topics

ACC BYU Georgia Miami UCLA

Subjects

BYU ORG · 5× Auburn ORG · 3× Cincinnati GPE · 3× Georgia GPE · 3× Mississippi ORG · 3× Texas GPE · 3× UCLA ORG · 3× ACC ORG · 2× Miami GPE · 2× Syracuse ORG · 2×

Narrative

No. 20 Northwestern (plus 3 1/2) at Oregon Chip Kelly, who has worked wonders as Northwestern’s first-year offensive coordinator, returns to Eugene to face the program he led to a 46-7 record from 2009-12 after two years as OC.
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-10-28
🔮 Gators could have QB Aaron Philo (shoulder) back or go with Tramell Jones again.

Claims (29 extracted, 2 hedged)

The upsets keep coming, followed by “coachspeak” about parity in college football. asserted
upsets → come → football
The trendlines appear to back it up. asserted
trendlines → appear → it
All this is according to Sportradar. uncertain
this → accord → Sportradar
A total of 69 one-score conference games have been played in the Power Four so far this season, which means there is a lot of riveting football going on. asserted
which → play → football
No. 1 Miami (minus 14 1/2) at North Carolina Darian Mensah and Malachi Toney are the hottest things going right now and both are in the mix for the Heisman Trophy. asserted
both → go → Trophy
The Tar Heels’ middle-of-the-pack ACC defense shriveled in the fourth quarter against struggling Syracuse. asserted
defense → shrivel → Syracuse
No. 2 Ohio State (minus 6 1/2) at Southern California The Buckeyes go to the West Coast for their first game without Julian Sayin. asserted
Buckeyes → go → Sayin
Their defense is capable of carrying the load in this one. asserted
defense → carry → one
No. 17 Florida (plus 11 1/2) at No. 3 Georgia Georgia, coming off open date following the Auburn upset, hasn’t lost consecutive games since the 2018 season. asserted
Georgia → come → season
Gators could have QB Aaron Philo (shoulder) back or go with Tramell Jones again. uncertain
Gators → have → Jones
Pick: Georgia 27-17. Minnesota (plus 20 1/2) at No. 4 Indiana This seems like a big spread for a Hoosiers team that hasn’t scored more than 20 points in any of its last three games and has a quarterback who’s been banged up. asserted
who → seem → quarterback
No. 5 Notre Dame (minus 30) at Navy The Fighting Irish have had a couple weeks to stew over what happened at BYU and will take it out on an underperforming Navy defense. asserted
what → stew → defense
No. 6 Utah (minus 6 1/2) at Cincinnati The Holy War against No. 8 BYU is looming next week, but Cincinnati will get the Utes’ full attention after what the Bearcats did to Texas Tech last week. asserted
Bearcats → loom → Tech
Nevada at No. 7 UCLA (minus 22 1/2) UCLA steps out of conference to face a middling Mountain West team. asserted
UCLA → step → team
QB Ty Dieffenbach continues to build chemistry with the backing of the Big Ten’s best run game. asserted
Dieffenbach → continue → game
BYU is back home, in bounce-back mode and looking to get out to a fast start after two close games. asserted
BYU → bounce → games
The Longhorns calmed the waters in Austin with their win over Mississippi and won’t slip up against a spiraling Bulldogs team that lost QB Kamario Taylor for the season. asserted
that → calm → season
Auburn at No. 12 Mississippi (minus 13) Rebels’ playoff hopes dangling and RB Kewan Lacy (shoulder) is out. asserted
Lacy → dangle → ?
Expect Trinidad Chambliss, picked off three times by Texas, to be better against an Auburn defense that’s allowed over 700 yards passing over last two games. asserted
that → expect → games
No. 22 Arizona (plus 3 1/2) at No. 13 Texas Tech Wildcats riding momentum of five-game win streak into Lubbock, where they haven’t won since 1935. asserted
they → rid → 1935
Red Raiders have lost their mojo, and it showed at Cincinnati. asserted
it → lose → Cincinnati
Virginia at No. 14 Wake Forest (minus 12) Demon Deacons have won four straight, the last three by lopsided scores. asserted
Deacons → win → scores
Virginia hasn’t been getting much done on offense, but Tony Elliott gave QB Beau Pribula a vote of confidence this week. asserted
Elliott → get → confidence
Texas State (plus 11) at No. 20 Boise State Matchup of a couple young coaches whose stars are rising in Bobcats’ GJ Kinne and Broncos’ Spencer Danielson. asserted
stars → rise → Kinne
No. 20 Northwestern (plus 3 1/2) at Oregon Chip Kelly, who has worked wonders as Northwestern’s first-year offensive coordinator, returns to Eugene to face the program he led to a 46-7 record from 2009-12 after two years as OC. asserted
he → work → OC
No. 23 Missouri (minus 10) at Arkansas All-America RB Ahmad Hardy returned to practice this week, but Jamal Roberts will continue to be the bell cow for the Tigers. asserted
Roberts → return → Tigers
No. 24 Oklahoma State (minus 9 1/2) at Iowa State Cyclones have given up over 300 yards passing in two straight games. asserted
Cyclones → give → games
Oklahoma State’s Drew Mestemaker has thrown for over 300 in six straight. asserted
Mestemaker → throw → six
No. 25 Wisconsin (plus 3 1/2) at Iowa Iowa has won four straight over the Badgers and outscored them 79-10 the last two meetings. asserted
Iowa → win → them
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