‘God will surely provide’: Afghans compete for jobs, homes as millions return from neighbouring countries

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Cite

AFP. (2026, October 28). ‘God will surely provide’: Afghans compete for jobs, homes as millions return from neighbouring countries. Dawn. https://www.dawn.com/news/2040469/god-will-surely-provide-afghans-compete-for-jobs-homes-as-millions-return-from-neighbouring-countries

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Dawn · collected 2026-10-28 · by AFP

Quick Summary

Afghanistan faces an influx of over six million people returning from Iran and Pakistan due to deportation drives by those countries after decades-long hosting of refugees fleeing conflict. In Jawzjan province, laborers like Ghulam Sakhi Barat are struggling with job scarcity and rising costs as the population surges by more than 26 percent in some areas. With food insecurity affecting nearly one-third of Afghans at crisis levels, competition for housing has led to rent prices increasing by up to 150%. The government claims there are no unresolved issues or unemployed people, but many residents report ongoing economic hardships and lack of support.
Written locally by qwen2.5:14b on 2026-10-28, using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the same event (that is the story summary below).

AI analysis runs on qwen2.5:14b, locally

Story summary

Millions of Afghans have returned from Iran and Pakistan over the past three years, intensifying competition for jobs and housing in areas like Sheberghan, the capital of Jawzjan province. As a result, long-time residents are struggling with reduced job opportunities. Ghulam Sakhi Barat, an 83-year-old resident, noted that "people are going hungry" due to the influx of returnees. The UN warned in September that competition over scarce resources could fuel grievances and instability. Abdul Qader Hotak, who returned after two decades in Pakistan, now finds his children collecting rubbish to earn money instead of attending school.

Written for “Afghan Refugees Returning Home” on 2026-10-28, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.
Why this leaning score
The model judged this article politically coded and scored it -0.35, but 1 quote(s) could not be found in the article and the other 3 are attributed speech rather than the article's own narration, so the score is not published.
Written under an earlier scoring contract, which gave a paragraph rather than checkable quotes. Re-analysing this article replaces it.
Leaning score withheld for article 112109: no verified evidence · logged 2026-10-28

Story

📰 Afghan Refugees Returning Home
World · 1 article(s) covering the same event.

Compared with similar articles

Nothing to compare against. No article is close enough to this one for the pipeline to have linked or judged the pair.
How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
26
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
8%
2 of 26 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
withheld
no quote in the article backed the model's score
Publisher signals
72/100
Dawn's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
1
World
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-10-28 · how these are computed

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

Dawn · 2359 article(s) · 3 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 3 correction(s)

Who wrote this

AFP
758 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 Jawzjan may be hundreds of kilometres (miles) from the frontiers with Iran and Pakistan, but Afghans have travelled far and wide to reach areas they or their relatives fled years earlier.
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🔮 U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth proposed the creation of an "ambitious" new U.S.-ASEAN defence framework on Wednesday (October 28, 2026), telling the bloc's leaders it could help them navigate "critically important" years ahead.
🔮 Following the vote, both Mr. Netanyahu and his rival Gadi Eisenkot vowed to form a government despite neither being projected to win a majority.
🔮 Malcolm Macdonald put Newcastle ahead eight minutes from time, and it seemed as if there would be no fairytale for the non-league outfit.
🔮 President Donald Trump may be facing a political pounding at the US midterm elections next month — but in Europe expectations are low that a big Democrat win would change much.
2026-10-28 · mixed framing · Trump tamed after US midterms? Europe doubts it
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🔮 Neighbouring Sri Lanka closed schools as its Department of Meteorology warned that storms could trigger flash floods and mudslides.
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🔮 The strongest gains came from Arab Israeli parties whose voters turned out in soaring numbers against Netanyahu, who has relentlessly warned that the minority would dilute the Jewish nationalist direction in which he has taken Israel.
Wire or desk byline, not an individual reporter.
Also by AFP
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 758 articles by AFP →

Topics

Afghanistan Afghans Iran Pakistan Sheberghan

Subjects

Afghanistan GPE · 6× Pakistan GPE · 4× Afghans NORP · 3× Iran GPE · 3× AFP ORG · 2× Jawzjan GPE · 2× Sheberghan GPE · 2× Barat PERSON · 1× Ghulam Sakhi Barat PERSON · 1× Jawzjan province GPE · 1×

Narrative

Sustained support is vital for both the returnees and the communities hosting them, the UN warned in September. “Competition over scarce resources risks fuelling grievances, increasing displacement and promoting instability,” said Georgette Gagnon, the deputy special representative of the UN mission in Afghanistan.
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-10-28
🔮 Jawzjan may be hundreds of kilometres (miles) from the frontiers with Iran and Pakistan, but Afghans have travelled far and wide to reach areas they or their relatives fled years earlier.

Claims (26 extracted, 2 hedged)

As labourers gathered at a roadside in northern Afghanistan, Ghulam Sakhi Barat joined the search for work, with millions of new arrivals intensifying pressure for jobs and homes. asserted
millions → gather → jobs
More than six million Afghans have returned from Iran and Pakistan in little over three years as the neighbouring countries have launched deportation drives after decades hosting those fleeing conflict. asserted
countries → return → conflict
With seven relatives to support in Sheberghan, the capital of Jawzjan province, Barat said “people are going hungry” as a result of the influx. asserted
people → support → influx
“Since the returnees arrived, there have been fewer jobs for local people,” the 83-year-old said, wearing a frayed waistcoat. asserted
old → arrive → waistcoat
“Help is being given to the returnees, but no help is being given to the people who were already living here.” asserted
who → give → people
Jawzjan may be hundreds of kilometres (miles) from the frontiers with Iran and Pakistan, but Afghans have travelled far and wide to reach areas they or their relatives fled years earlier. uncertain
they → travel → areas
Abdul Qader Hotak, 60, returned to the province after two decades in Pakistan, despite his family having no land or property in the area. “My children used to go to school and study in Pakistan … asserted
children → return → Pakistan
Now, all of them collect rubbish to earn something,” he said, eight months after being deported. asserted
he → collect → something
In one part of the province, Aqcha, the United Nations projects the population will surge by more than 26 per cent due to the mass returns, with water becoming a “critical flashpoint” in the drought-hit district. asserted
water → project → district
Faqir Mohammad Khudabakhsh, a mason who has spent two decades going back and forth to Iran, said he is now only able to get work three days a week. asserted
he → spend → work
“Everyone who has returned to Afghanistan needs a place to live and a job, but they have neither,” the 54-year-old said, surrounded by fellow labourers in Sheberghan. asserted
old → return → Sheberghan
“Instead of spending money on food and clothes, they have to spend it on rent. asserted
they → spend → rent
I’m sorry to say this, but we are suffering from malnutrition,” he added, in paint-splattered khaki trousers. asserted
he → ’m → trousers
Nearly one in three Afghans — 15.9 million people — are facing food insecurity at crisis levels or worse, according to UN data. uncertain
Afghans → face → data
Competition for housing is fierce, with residents who spoke to AFP reporting rent surging by as much as 150 percent in recent years. asserted
rent → speak → years
‘God will surely provide’ asserted
God → provide → ?
At the provincial information directorate, the director said there are “no unresolved issues facing local residents or returnees”. asserted
director → say → residents
“We have no unemployed people in Afghanistan, unless someone is simply too fond of their own comfort and chooses not to work,” said Saifuddin Muhtasem, sitting beside a globe and a bookshelf shaped like the map of Afghanistan. asserted
Muhtasem → have → Afghanistan
The government has established a committee operating nationwide to control rent prices and prevent hikes, he said. asserted
he → establish → hikes
But a 30-year-old civil servant told AFP he had never heard of such a committee and that his rent has doubled in 18 months. asserted
rent → tell → months
“Economic problems have increased since the returnees arrived,” said Ahmadi, who only gave one name for security reasons. asserted
who → increase → reasons
Sustained support is vital for both the returnees and the communities hosting them, the UN warned in September. “Competition over scarce resources risks fuelling grievances, increasing displacement and promoting instability,” said Georgette Gagnon, the deputy special representative of the UN mission in Afghanistan. asserted
Gagnon → host → Afghanistan
The challenges are compounded by prolonged drought in Jawzjan, where the air is imbued with dust and the landscape dotted with domed mud homes and camels grazing. asserted
landscape → compound → homes
Most of the province’s water is now unfit for drinking or farming, said the information director, putting his hopes in a canal project which is expected to take another two years to complete. asserted
which → say → years
“While the people of Afghanistan are not dying of hunger or thirst, they are in dire need of shelter,” said Muhtasem, who encouraged international organisations to come and build homes for returnees in the province. asserted
who → die → province
“As for the rest, God will surely provide.” asserted
God → provide → rest
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