San Francisco Bay Area voters are being asked to subsidize a failing public transportation system with two ballot measures on Nov. 3.
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voters → ask → Nov.
One of them, Proposition H, would create a special property tax, or parcel tax, in San Francisco to raise funds for the local light rail train, the Muni.
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One → create → train
The other, Proposition RTM, would ask voters raise sales taxes by 1% in San Francisco, and by 0.5% in surrounding counties, to shore up the Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) rail system.
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other → ask → system
Otherwise, proponents warn, public transportation in the Bay Area faces a financial earthquake.
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transportation → warn → earthquake
The epicenter of this earthquake would be BART, which faces a structural deficit of roughly $400 million.
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which → face → million
while Muni and other Bay Area transit agencies face their own budget pressures.
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Muni → face → pressures
The conventional response is familiar: raise taxes or the trains and buses will close — and drivers will suffer more traffic.
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drivers → raise → traffic
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But the deeper problem is that Bay Area transit was built and financed around a commuting pattern that no longer exists.
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that → download → pattern
It is also managed by a bureaucracy that has struggled to adapt to the new realities of commuting, post-pandemic.
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that → manage → commuting
Rather than asking taxpayers to subsidize yesterday’s demand, policymakers should rethink how transit is funded and operated.
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transit → ask → demand
After COVID-19, many people changed how they commute.
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they → change → COVID-19
Working from home has reduced the number of daily commuters traveling into San Francisco and other Bay Area employment centers.
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Working → work → Francisco
The share of area commuters working from home rose from 7% in 2019 to 17% in 2024.
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share → work → 2024
Over the same period, transit’s share of commuting fell from 13% to 8%.
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share → fall → %
Population patterns have changed as well.
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patterns → change → ?
The nine-county Bay Area lost approximately 109,000 residents between 2020 and 2025.
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Area → lose → 2020
Before COVID-19, BART’s fares, parking revenues, and advertising proceeds covered about 71% of operating expenses.
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fares → cover → expenses
By fiscal year 2025, they covered only about 30%.
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they → cover → %
BART ridership remains less than half its pre-pandemic level, while other major Bay Area operators have experienced similar declines.
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operators → remain → declines
In the private sector, losing roughly half your customers would normally trigger a fundamental reassessment of the business model.
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losing → lose → model
A company would be expected to cut costs, restructure operations, reduce excess capacity and, in extreme circumstances, sell assets.
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company → expect → assets
What happens when an organization in trouble faces no market discipline?
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organization → happen → discipline
Unlike private firms, bureaucracies operate under entirely different incentives.
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bureaucracies → operate → incentives
Employees, unions, managers, and other organized interests will protect existing budgets, staffing, and salaries.
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Employees → organize → budgets
The status quo will tend to be preserved even when circumstances change.
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circumstances → tend → ?
Despite collapsing ridership from 2019 to 2025, full-time staffing remained steady at over 4,600, while employee wages and benefits grew by nearly 40%, faster than the 26% increase in prices over the same period.
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wages → collapse → period
But why should higher taxes be the default solution to a transportation market that has fundamentally changed?
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that → change → market
Policymakers should seek solutions that protect taxpayers instead of squeezing them.
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that → seek → them
The answer is to privatize parts of the transit network.
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answer → privatize → network
As OECD research finds, contracting out public services can lower costs and improve the quality of service, if done right.
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contracting → find → service
San Francisco could adopt the private models used by commercially operated networks like Hong Kong’s MTR and Tokyo Metro, rather than perpetual taxes and subsidies.
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Francisco → adopt → taxes
After years of declining ridership and changing commuting patterns, BART should not get another bailout.
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BART → decline → bailout
The free ride should end.
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ride → end → ?
Instead of asking taxpayers to pay more for yesterday’s transit model, policymakers should push for competition, accountability, and a system built for how the Bay Area travels today.
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Area → ask → competition
The Aporia
