President Donald Trump’s average approval rating has dipped below 40%, while his disapproval rating has climbed into the high 50s.
asserted
rating → dip → 50s
In previous elections, when presidents had approval ratings below 50%, their parties have almost always performed poorly in the midterms.
asserted
parties → have → midterms
Congressional Republicans are not doing much better.
asserted
Republicans → do → ?
The generic ballot shows that most midterm voters favor Democrats, and congressional disapproval has soared in 2026 compared to 2025.
asserted
disapproval → show → 2025
It now sits in the high 60s.
asserted
It → sit → 60s
Republicans clearly need a new strategy.
asserted
Republicans → need → strategy
As strange as it might sound, one of the best models could come from their former nemesis, President Barack Obama, who managed to pull off one of modern political history’s biggest turnarounds in 2012.
uncertain
who → sound → 2012
Many Americans have forgotten that Obama’s reelection was far from assured.
asserted
reelection → forget → ?
The Tea Party helped propel Republicans to a massive midterm victory in 2010.
asserted
Party → propel → 2010
Instability was spreading overseas, and fears about government spending were widespread.
asserted
fears → spread → spending
Throughout 2011, Obama’s approval rating remained in the low 40s and sometimes fell into the high 30s.
asserted
rating → remain → 30s
Obama turned things around in time for the 2012 presidential election by adopting two strategies that conservatives could use in 2026.
uncertain
conservatives → turn → 2026
First, although many Americans were deeply unhappy with the economy in 2012, the Obama administration successfully persuaded millions of voters that their economic problems had been inherited from the George W. Bush administration.
asserted
problems → persuade → administration
Obama argued America could not afford to return to the failed policies that, in his view, caused the 2008 crash.
uncertain
that → argue → crash
Of course, his account conveniently ignored that many of those policies had been strongly supported by Democrats in Congress, but the political strategy worked.
asserted
strategy → ignore → Congress
The message became one of the centerpieces of Obama’s campaign.
asserted
message → become → campaign
His team even adopted "Forward" as an official campaign slogan.
asserted
team → adopt → slogan
Republicans have an obvious opportunity to make a similar case today.
asserted
Republicans → have → case
They inherited one of the worst inflation crises in decades when they took power in 2025.
asserted
they → inherit → 2025
Housing costs and the prices of most consumer goods skyrocketed under Democratic rule for numerous reasons, including reckless spending, unnecessary lockdown and stimulus programs, supply chain problems and the Biden administration’s obsession with costly "green" energy sources.
asserted
costs → skyrocket → sources
If Republicans want to survive November, they must convince voters that returning power to the architects of those policies could make the affordability crisis even worse.
uncertain
crisis → want → policies
The second strategy Republicans could borrow from Obama is related but distinct.
uncertain
Republicans → borrow → Obama
Obama acknowledged in 2012 that the country had more work to do, but he also argued that his administration had made real progress in recovering from the 2008 housing crisis.
asserted
administration → acknowledge → crisis
Finishing the job, Obama warned, was "going to take more time than any of us would like.
asserted
any → finish → us
Republicans could make "Let us finish what we started" one of their central messages in 2026.
uncertain
we → make → 2026
Republicans have an obvious opportunity to make a similar case today.
asserted
Republicans → have → case
They inherited one of the worst inflation crises in decades when they took power in 2025.
asserted
they → inherit → 2025
There is little reason for Republican candidates to pretend that the promised American Golden Age has already arrived.
asserted
Age → be → ?
Voters know that groceries, housing, healthcare and other basic necessities remain painfully expensive.
asserted
groceries → know → ?
Any campaign that ignores those realities could come across as insulting or hopelessly detached.
uncertain
that → ignore → realities
A more credible message would acknowledge Americans’ continued struggles while arguing that free-market policies are beginning to work and need more time to produce the results voters want.
asserted
voters → acknowledge → results
Republican policymakers inherited a crisis so large that no administration could reasonably reverse it in only two years.
uncertain
administration → inherit → years
There are plenty of victories for Republicans to tout.
asserted
Republicans → be → victories
Under President Joe Biden, there were more than 10 million border encounters, along with an unknown number of additional illegal entries that were never detected.
asserted
that → be → entries
Under Democrats, the Consumer Price Index, a common measure of inflation, increased by a whopping 21% from January 2021 to January 2025.
asserted
Index → increase → January
Since Republicans took control of the federal government, CPI has increased by just 5%, well within historical norms.
asserted
CPI → take → norms
The average sales price of a home also skyrocketed under Biden, increasing by more than $100,000 during his first two years in office.
asserted
price → skyrocket → office
Under Trump and congressional Republicans, home prices have hardly budged.
asserted
prices → budge → Trump
Housing affordability remains a major problem, but conservative policies have at least stopped it from getting worse.
asserted
policies → remain → it
None of these accomplishments guarantees Republicans a victory.
asserted
None → guarantee → victory
…and 9 more, not listed.
The Aporia
