The global trend towards electrification has been recognised by the climate process, and the policy challenge is that the shift will involve less commonality and greater differentiation.
asserted
shift → recognise → commonality
This suggests shifting the discussion from the global impact of coal-based emissions to the role of electricity in national well-being.
uncertain
This → suggest → being
Global emissions of carbon dioxide deal with the symptoms, not the root cause of the problem: national energy use.
asserted
emissions → deal → use
The G7 should not be allowed to set the agenda, as the Paris Agreement did 10 years ago.
asserted
G7 → allow → agenda
Shifting the global policy focus from production to consumption patterns will require a reframing of the climate process.
asserted
Shifting → shift → process
Real collaboration will only come with a new conceptual framework that treats the global crisis as a collection of national inactions.
asserted
that → come → inactions
The limits of global ‘consensus’
Academics in the West, acting as “epistemic communities”, set up the framework of climate policy and law.
asserted
Academics → act → policy
This framework comprises interlinked ‘global values’ that are universal, ‘global goods’ that are determined by global science, complex ‘global models’ based on global projections and ‘global rules’ arrived at through multilateral conference diplomacy in global organisations.
asserted
that → comprise → organisations
Official experts described complex issues as the best available knowledge to be universally accepted.
asserted
experts → describe → knowledge
They achieved this by using institutions of the United Nations as mechanisms to produce technical reports and frame policies, lending them legitimacy under the banner of international cooperation.
asserted
They → achieve → cooperation
International law was then used to enforce within countries the decisions driven by global ‘consensus’.
asserted
law → use → consensus
In the case of climate change, the gap between the evolving science of global ecological limits and the growing energy needs of urbanising countries seeking comparable levels of well-being was resolved through arm-twisting in an unequal world.
asserted
gap → evolve → world
Western diplomats converted a political claim in a vaguely worded treaty into workshops and meetings, where the Global South gained nothing but empty resolutions.
uncertain
South → convert → resolutions
Technology transfer has been treated as a ‘scientific’ issue rather than an ‘implementation’ issue.
asserted
transfer → treat → issue
This framing ensured continuing dialogue without any outcome.
asserted
framing → ensure → outcome
The lesson from 35 years of diplomatic negotiations as well as alternate models of growth to those of the West is the need to reframe climate policy.
asserted
lesson → reframe → policy
First, in a major reversal the United States is echoing reservations of the Global South.
asserted
States → echo → South
The Executive Order “Putting America First in International Environmental Agreements”, January 20, 2025, underlines that the United States shall “henceforth prioritise economic efficiency, the promotion of American prosperity, consumer choice, and fiscal restraint in all foreign engagements that concern energy policy”.
asserted
that → put → policy
Second, as energy use in the Global South grows to achieve comparable levels of well-being, ‘carbonising’ will precede ‘decarbonising’.
asserted
carbonising → grow → being
This is only partly recognised in the UN’s new call for stabilisation, rather than reduction, of emissions.
asserted
This → recognise → emissions
Third, the amount of energy needed for human well-being has never been discussed.
asserted
amount → need → being
China has emerged as the world’s second-largest economy and a major global manufacturing power, achieving levels of well-being comparable to those in the West with much lower energy use.
asserted
China → emerge → use
Fourth, China’s nationally driven path to achieving stabilisation has been missed in UN Reports even though it provides an alternate to the approach of the West.
asserted
it → drive → West
U.S. emissions increased by 133 megatons in 2025.
asserted
emissions → increase → 2025
China’s significant steps suggest that the technology aspect of the energy transition should look forward to electrification using renewable sources, rather than focus backwards on eliminating fossil fuels.
asserted
aspect → suggest → fuels
Fifth, China’s and India’s insight lies is limiting consumption as a percentage of GDP, replacing the internal combustion engine, and meeting new energy demand through solar, wind and hydropower.
asserted
insight → lie → solar
China’s more rapid progress shows that because solar and wind power have become “cheaper” than coal and gas, they will not drive the energy transition by themselves.
asserted
they → show → themselves
Renewable energy is decentralised, intermittent and has zero-marginal-cost energy, requiring a strategic decision by the state on how to transform the energy system.
asserted
energy → have → system
China installed more wind turbines and solar panels in 2025 than all other nations combined, adding about ten times as much capacity as the U.S.
asserted
China → instal → U.S.
As this trend is expected to continue, 50% of electricity generation could come from non-fossil- fuel sources by 2030.
uncertain
% → expect → 2030
About 5.62 million new energy vehicles were registered in China during the first half of 2025.
asserted
vehicles → register → 2025
Global trends
Climate policy should now by driven by practice, as a societal problem and not through global models, natural science and environmental law.
asserted
policy → drive → models
First, emerging countries are using much less energy to achieve well-being in cities than the West did earlier, redefining lifestyles and ecological limits.
asserted
West → emerge → lifestyles
Electrification is making the internal combustion engine redundant.
asserted
engine → make → ?
Yet this technological trend in energy use is not captured in global emissions models used by the UN.
asserted
trend → capture → UN
Second, in material use, the West’s much smaller share of the global population, around one-fifth, is balanced by the sustainable development of the Rest.
asserted
share → balance → Rest
These societal trends are ignored in global models, and taken together with West’s continuing disproportionate use of energy, suggest there is no global crisis, but rather a few national crises.
asserted
trends → ignore → energy
Third, given the increasing intensity and frequency of extreme events which affect the Global South, where insurance coverage is limited, continuing with token provision of climate finance by developed countries in negotiations needs to be reviewed.
asserted
continuing → give → negotiations
More practical measures include global early warning and regional technical cooperation in disaster relief.
asserted
measures → include → relief
The real question for India is how to build support for a new agenda centred on climate justice.
asserted
question → build → justice
…and 1 more, not listed.
The Aporia
