A recent opinion poll shows Sweden's centre-left opposition holding a 10 percentage point lead over the ruling right-wing coalition ahead of the September 13 election, making a change of government likely. The survey conducted by Verian polling firm found that the opposition has the backing of 53.9% of voters, estimated to give them 196 seats in parliament, compared to 43.9% and 153 seats for the current coalition government led by Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson. The poll also shows Social Democrats leader Magdalena Andersson as likely to become prime minister again after four years in opposition. According to the poll, a "miracle" would be needed to prevent defeat for Kristersson's coalition.
Written by the local model on 2026-08-18,
using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the
same event (that is the story summary below).
Story summary
Sweden's centre-left opposition holds a 10 percentage point lead over the ruling right-wing coalition ahead of a September 13 election, making a change of government likely, according to an opinion poll conducted on behalf of public broadcaster SVT. The survey showed that Social Democrats leader Magdalena Andersson would likely become prime minister again after four years in opposition, replacing current Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson. Sweden's four left-leaning parties had a combined 53.9% backing, estimated to give them 196 seats, while the coalition government stood at 43.9%, or 153 seats, according to the survey conducted by the Verian polling firm. The Social Democrats maintained their position as Sweden's biggest party with 30.5% support, an increase that suggests they may be able to win a majority of seats in the election. This would mark a significant shift for Kristersson and his four-party coalition, which has been struggling with issues like cost of living concerns, security, immigration, crime, and energy supply. The poll results have sparked concerns that only "a miracle" could prevent defeat for the current government.
Written for “Swedish Election Polls” on 2026-08-31,
grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.
Why this leaning score
The article's own words the score was based on. Each is quoted
verbatim and was checked against the article text before being
stored, so you can find it in the original.
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centre-left opposition
left labels the opposition as centre-left, implying a positive connotation
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ruling right-wing coalition
right labels the ruling party as right-wing, implying a negative connotation
Leaning score -0.40 for article 1091 (high confidence, 2 verified quotes) · logged 2026-08-25
Swedish opposition holds big lead ahead of September vote, poll shows
STOCKHOLM, Aug 18 -
asserted
poll → hold → vote
Sweden's centre-left opposition holds a 10 percentage point lead over the ruling right-wing coalition ahead of a September 13 election, making a change of government likely, according to an opinion poll conducted on behalf of public broadcaster SVT.
uncertain
change → hold → SVT
No government has ever bridged a gap this wide in such a short time, and "only a miracle" could now prevent defeat for Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson and his four-party coalition, SVT reported on Tuesday.
uncertain
SVT → bridge → Tuesday
The August 3-16 survey of some 3,000 voters showed Social Democrats leader Magdalena Andersson would likely become prime minister again after four years in opposition, replacing Kristersson of the right-wing Moderates.
asserted
Andersson → show → Moderates
Sweden's four left-leaning parties had a combined 53.9% backing, estimated to give them 196 seats, while the coalition government stood at 43.9%, or 153 seats, according to the survey conducted by the Verian polling firm.
uncertain
government → lean → firm
The campaign has focused on cost of living issues as well as security, immigration, crime and energy supply.
asserted
campaign → focus → issues
The Social Democrats maintained their position as Sweden's biggest party with 30.5% support, an increase of 0.2 percentage points in the 2022 election.
asserted
Democrats → maintain → election
