Battleground metros to watch in South Africa's municipal elections
JOHANNESBURG, Oct 26 - South Africans vote in municipal elections on November 4 amid voter frustration over poor service delivery, unstable local government coalitions and rising costs.
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Africans → watch → delivery
Held every five years, the elections will be an important gauge of the political landscape ahead of the 2029 national vote, with support for the African National Congress (ANC), Nelson Mandela's former liberation movement, continuing to erode.
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support → hold → Congress
THE PRIZE
Africa's richest city has churned through seven mayors since the 2021 local elections as successive coalition governments have unravelled.
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governments → churn → elections
The pro-business Democratic Alliance (DA) gained an early advantage by naming former Cape Town mayor and Western Cape premier Helen Zille as its mayoral candidate months ahead of its rivals.
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Alliance → gain → rivals
The 75-year-old political veteran has run an energetic campaign focused on deteriorating infrastructure and poor service delivery.
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veteran → run → infrastructure
Recent polls put the DA above 30% and the ANC above 20%, raising the possibility of a coalition between the two parties, which have governed together nationally since the ANC lost its parliamentary majority in 2024.
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ANC → put → 2024
Both parties could first seek deals with smaller parties rather than share power.
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parties → seek → power
ACTIONSA THE KINGMAKER
Tshwane, home to the administrative capital Pretoria, underscores the importance of smaller parties in South Africa's fragmented municipal politics.
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Tshwane → underscore → politics
The ANC governed the metro until 2016, when the DA captured it in a major urban defeat for the ruling party.
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DA → govern → party
Coalition politics subsequently proved volatile, and the DA lost power in 2024 after its coalition partner ActionSA backed an ANC-led no-confidence motion against its mayor.
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partner → prove → mayor
Tshwane has since been governed by a multi-party coalition led by ActionSA.
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Tshwane → govern → ActionSA
The party, founded in 2020 by former Johannesburg mayor Herman Mashaba, is a centre-right party that campaigns on anti-corruption and a hard line on immigration.
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that → found → immigration
CAPE TOWN: DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE BASTION
The DA is heavily favoured to retain Cape Town, which it has governed since 2006 and where it has held an outright majority since 2011.
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it → favour → 2011
Polls suggest the party should remain above 50%, though some analysts expect a tighter contest as voters grapple with soaring property prices and persistent gang violence.
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voters → suggest → prices
The DA is also targeting Nelson Mandela Bay, one of South Africa's most turbulent coalition metros and currently governed by an ANC-led coalition.
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DA → target → coalition
The economic hub of KwaZulu-Natal province, which includes the port city of Durban, could deliver one of the election's biggest blows to the ANC, with former president Jacob Zuma's uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MKP) threatening to displace it.
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Party → include → it
Zuma backed MKP after his bitter split with the ANC in 2023.
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Zuma → back → 2023
Polls suggest the party could win 40% to 50% of the vote, while ANC support could fall into the low teens.
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support → suggest → teens
MKP's rise helped drive the ANC's losses in the 2024 national election.
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rise → drive → election
CORRUPTION TEST
Ekurhuleni, home to Johannesburg's OR Tambo International Airport, could provide another measure of the ANC's decline in Gauteng Province, where voters have cited concerns over corruption and crime.
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voters → provide → corruption
Polls suggest ANC support could fall from 38% in 2021 to about 25%, leaving it neck-and-neck with the DA.
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support → suggest → DA
LAST STRONGHOLDS OF THE ANC
Buffalo City, which includes KuGompo City in Eastern Cape province, and Mangaung, home to Bloemfontein in Free State province, remain the ANC's strongest metropolitan bastions, making them important tests of how far the party's urban support has eroded.
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support → include → province
The ANC won 59% in Buffalo City and 51% in Mangaung in 2021, helped by deep-rooted loyalty to the former liberation movement.
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ANC → win → movement
The Aporia
