The
Ebola outbreak in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo is showing early signs of slowing, but UN officials have warned that it is too soon to conclude that the epidemic has passed its peak, with transmission continuing to rise in some areas.
asserted
transmission → show → areas
"It's too early to confidently say we have passed a peak", said
World Health Organization's Olivier le Polain, when asked whether the epidemic has reached a turning point.
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epidemic → say → point
According to the latest Congolese health ministry data cited by The Guardian, more than 7,200 confirmed cases and over 3,475 deaths had been recorded as of Monday.
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cases → accord → Monday
Congolese health minister Samuel Roger Kamba said the rate of transmission of the Bundibugyo variant had declined, with daily infections falling from around 120 at the height of the outbreak to about 80.
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infections → say → 80
“At one point, we were recording about 120 cases per day; today, we’re seeing about 80 per day.
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we → record → day
So the number of new cases is decreasing every day", he said.
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he → decrease → cases
However, UN officials cautioned that the decline is not uniform across the affected region.
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decline → caution → region
"It remains a deadly and a massive epidemic.
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It → remain → ?
There are some areas of progress, but nonetheless, in other areas, we continue to see growth in cases", UN special Ebola coordinator Julien Harneis told a press briefing in Geneva.
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Harneis → be → Geneva
Mobile data used to track Ebola spread
Health officials are also using anonymised mobile-phone data to track population movements and identify areas where the virus could spread next.
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virus → use → areas
The approach, developed with Swedish non-profit Flowminder, analyses aggregated and anonymised records generated when mobile-phone users connect to telecommunications networks.
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users → develop → networks
Researchers use the data to estimate movement between different areas and identify locations at risk of receiving infected travellers.
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Researchers → use → travellers
"It gives us a more nuanced understanding of risk," Le Polain said.
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Polain → give → risk
He pointed to Ituri province, where mining and trade drive substantial population movement.
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mining → point → movement
Understanding those movements is crucial to understanding how the outbreak spreads."
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outbreak → understand → movements
Flowminder founder Linus Bengtsson said the system tracks movement patterns rather than individual subscribers.
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system → say → subscribers
"We seek to provide estimates of how people move, which in turn is a predictor of how infectious people move," Bengtsson told Reuters.
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Bengtsson → seek → Reuters
The data is provided free of charge by Vodacom, Congo's largest mobile operator.
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data → provide → Vodacom
Flowminder said it receives aggregated and anonymised records and does not have access to information identifying individual subscribers.
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it → say → subscribers
Kisangani emerges as key area of concern
Flowminder's initial analysis focused on Bunia, Mongbwalu and Rwampara, three areas where the outbreak was believed to have started.
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outbreak → emerge → Bunia
Researchers tracked where people who had travelled from those areas subsequently went.
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who → track → areas
The largest flows were towards other parts of Ituri and neighbouring North Kivu province.
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flows → neighbour → Ituri
By the end of June, all 10 destinations receiving the largest traveller flows from the original outbreak areas had reported confirmed Ebola cases.
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destinations → receive → cases
The analysis was later expanded as the virus spread to other areas, with Kisangani emerging as a particular concern because of its role as a major transport hub on the Congo River.
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Kisangani → expand → River
"The fact that Kisangani was at risk was not a huge surprise, even if it was not bordering the affected areas," Le Polain said.
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Polain → border → areas
"By mid-June, the data showed the risk was significant and that the outbreak could spread there faster than we initially thought.
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we → show → June
We strengthened operations there before the first cases were detected."
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cases → strengthen → operations
The analysis also identified links between Kisangani, Kinshasa, settlements along the Congo River and areas near the borders with the Central African Republic and South Sudan.
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analysis → identify → Republic
The WHO has warned that the outbreak could spread to Kinshasa and neighbouring countries.
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outbreak → warn → Kinshasa
A modelling exercise presented in late June estimated a 70% probability of an Ebola case being detected in South Sudan by the end of September.
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exercise → present → September
Conflict complicates response
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Conflict → complicate → response
The outbreak, declared on May 15, is the Democratic Republic of Congo's 17th Ebola outbreak since the disease was identified in the country in 1976.
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disease → declare → 1976
It is caused by the Bundibugyo species of Ebola.
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It → cause → Ebola
Ituri province remains the main focus of the outbreak, while an ongoing conflict in the region has complicated efforts to monitor infections, trace contacts and deliver medical assistance.
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conflict → remain → assistance
The mobile-phone analysis also has limitations.
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analysis → have → limitations
It relies on data from Congolese networks and provides only a partial picture of cross-border movements.
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It → rely → movements
It currently uses data from Vodacom, which has more than 26 million active subscriptions and a market share of nearly 35%, meaning movements by users of other networks are not captured.
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movements → use → networks
Flowminder and UN officials said efforts are underway to secure similar arrangements with other telecom operators to improve coverage.
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efforts → say → coverage
The Aporia
