The Aporia · The end of Dan-istan: Newspoll shows Labor set to be wiped out at Victorian state election

A recent Newspoll indicates that Victoria’s Labor government is on track for significant losses at the upcoming state election, with the Coalition leading 55% to 45% on a two-party preferred basis. Conducted between October 15 and October 22 from 1,017 voters, the poll shows Labor's primary vote dropping to just 24%, down sharply since July. Meanwhile, the Coalition’s primary vote increased to 33%, with minor parties like One Nation benefiting as well, gaining at least 20% support. These results suggest a potential landslide victory for the Coalition and could lead to more than 20 seat changes from Labor in the state parliament.

Written locally by qwen2.5:14b on 2026-10-26, using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the same event (that is the story summary below).

Story summary

As of October 26, 2026, a Newspoll indicates that the Victorian Labor government is facing a landslide defeat at the upcoming state election, with the Coalition leading 55% to Labor's 45% on a two-party preferred basis. Conducted from October 15 to 22 among 1,017 voters, this poll marks a significant decline for Labor compared to July’s results where it trailed by only 52% to 48%. The primary vote share for Labor plummeted to just 24%, down four points since July and thirteen points from the 37% they secured in the last state election. Conversely, the Coalition's primary vote rose to 33%, up two points from July but slightly below their 34% in 2022. Additionally, minor parties like One Nation (at 20%) and the Greens (at 14%) are gaining traction as voter discontent grows. If this trend continues statewide, the Coalition is predicted to win a majority government, potentially capturing over twenty seats from Labor.

Written for “Victorian State Election Forecast” on 2026-10-26, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.

Why this leaning score

This article does not take a side on a contested political question, so it has no leaning score. That is an answer rather than a gap: a match report or a rescue can be warmly or critically written without being left or right, and scoring it anyway is how approval of a subject gets recorded as a political position.

No political leaning scored for article 107023 · logged 2026-10-26

📰 Victorian State Election Forecast

Politics · 1 article(s) covering the same event.

Nothing to compare against. No article is close enough to this one for the pipeline to have linked or judged the pair.

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability

Source leaning vs. consistency

Nicholas Comino

78 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction

🔮 If the swing were replicated uniformly across Victoria, the Coalition would comfortably win government in its own right and could pick up more than 20 seats from Labor.

2026-10-26 · assertive framing · The end of Dan-istan: Newspoll shows Labor set to be wiped out at Victorian state election

🔮 The Coalition has pledged to give Australians a legal right to pay with cash, unveiling a new bill that would force major retailers, restaurants, pharmacies and government agencies to accept notes and coins.

2026-10-25 · assertive framing · New 'Cash is King' plan unveiled to protect the rights of millions of Aussies to pay with notes and coins

🔮 'Let me say that if the Prime Minister were to intervene and cancel any of this madness, then I will be the first to go on 2GB in the afternoon and congratulate Anthony Albanese,' Howard said.

2026-10-25 · assertive framing · Former prime minister blasts Victoria Barracks sale 'madness' and urges Albanese to step in as thousands rally against sell-off

🔮 There are devices to be analysed, evidence to be analysed and assessed, so that will remain the case for a number of weeks and months.

2026-10-25 · assertive framing · AFP boss reveals determining motive is central to probe into alleged Helen Haines attack as detectives face 'months' of work

🔮 It adds: 'The number of times a parent needs to feed or express milk will be determined by individual needs and the age of the baby.'

2026-10-22 · assertive framing · NSW Parliament removes the words 'mother' and 'woman' from breastfeeding policy in favour of gender-neutral language

🔮 This time, he's missed out on the blockbuster first interview with Ben Roberts-Smith that he hoped would restore his battered reputation.

2026-10-21 · assertive framing · Why 'loyal' Karl Stefanovic lost the Ben Roberts-Smith interview he thought was his... as Ben Fordham tells his side of the story and sources insist Karl is 'furious': INSIDE MAIL

🔮 It questioned whether Haines had received undeclared gifts, held business interests, accepted political donations or maintained personal relationships with organisations that could potentially benefit from government funding.

2026-10-21 · assertive framing · Moment Albanese dodges question about role he played in Helen Haines dirt file that left independent MP 'disgusted' before alleged attack: 'That's not an answer'

🔮 The Labor ministry were set to be feted by corporate executives, lobbyists and business leaders at the event hosted by the Labor Business Forum, the ALP's business networking and fundraising wing.

2026-10-20 · assertive framing · The PM was minutes away from headlining a $2,500-a-head Labor fundraiser when everything changed: Inside Albanese's evening scramble as news of Helen Haines attack emerged

🔮 'I would've thought that if those people, and especially those men in there, had any front whatsoever, what they'd do is ask her to remove it effective immediately,' she said.

2026-10-19 · assertive framing · Jacqui Lambie lashes out at Pauline Hanson over cartoon mocking her vaginal prolapse: 'Nastiness'

🔮 On the morning the story was about to break, we had a series of meetings about how we would respond.

2026-10-18 · assertive framing · Jordan Steele-John hits back after he was accused of inappropriate behaviour around women: 'Nasty political games'

Also by Nicholas Comino

New 'Cash is King' plan unveiled to protect the rights of millions of Aussies to pay with notes and coins

2026-10-25 · Daily Mail

Former prime minister blasts Victoria Barracks sale 'madness' and urges Albanese to step in as thousands rally against sell-off

2026-10-25 · Daily Mail

AFP boss reveals determining motive is central to probe into alleged Helen Haines attack as detectives face 'months' of work

2026-10-25 · Daily Mail

NSW Parliament removes the words 'mother' and 'woman' from breastfeeding policy in favour of gender-neutral language

2026-10-22 · Daily Mail

Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.

All 78 articles by Nicholas Comino →

Victoria's Labor government has been dealt a devastating blow, with a bombshell Newspoll suggesting the Coalition is on track for a landslide victory at November's state election. asserted

Coalition → deal → election

The survey, conducted between October 15 and October 22 from a sample of 1,017 voters, put the Coalition ahead of Labor by 55 per cent to 45 per cent on a two-party preferred basis. asserted

survey → conduct → basis

The result marked a deterioration for Labor from July's poll, which showed the government trailing by 52 per cent to 48 per cent - already a sharp fall from its 2022 election result. asserted

government → mark → result

Labor's primary vote collapsed to just 24 per cent, down four points since July and 13 points below the 37 per cent it secured at the last state election. asserted

it → collapse → election

The Coalition's primary vote rose to 33 per cent, up two points since July and only slightly below the 34 per cent recorded by the Liberals and Nationals in 2022. Minor parties also continued to gain ground. asserted

parties → rise → ground

surged to 20 per cent, making it one of the biggest beneficiaries of voter discontent, while the Greens lifted to 14 per cent. asserted

Greens → surge → cent

If the swing were replicated uniformly across Victoria, the Coalition would comfortably win government in its own right and could pick up more than 20 seats from Labor. uncertain

Coalition → replicate → Labor

The result is expected to intensify concerns within Labor ranks after the party installed Ben Carroll as Premier in a bid to reset the government's fortunes following Jacinta Allan's departure. asserted

party → expect → departure

Jess Wilson (pictured) and the Coalition are set to win a majority government based on the poll Despite the leadership change, Labor's electoral position appears to have worsened. Carroll debuted with a deeply negative net approval rating, with just 30 per cent of voters viewing him favourably and 58 per cent holding an unfavourable opinion, giving him a net rating of minus 28. Despite this, Carroll remains ahead of Allan's position in July. asserted

Carroll → picture → July

The former premier recorded a net approval rating of minus 46, the worst result ever recorded for an Australian leader in Newspoll. asserted

premier → record → Newspoll

That poll ultimately proved fatal to Allan's leadership and triggered her resignation as Premier. Meanwhile, Opposition Leader Jess Wilson continued to strengthen her standing with voters. asserted

Wilson → prove → voters

Her favourable rating rose two points to 49 per cent, while her unfavourable rating remained unchanged at 39 per cent. asserted

rating → rise → cent

Wilson also maintained a commanding lead as preferred premier. asserted

Wilson → maintain → premier

Ben Carroll (pictured) launched Labor's campaign for a fourth term on Sunday morning The poll found 48 per cent of voters backed Wilson for the state's top job, compared with 34 per cent for Carroll. asserted

cent → picture → Carroll

The result builds on Wilson's strong performance in July, when she led Allan as preferred premier by 51 per cent to 32 per cent. asserted

she → build → cent

The poll is a significant setback for Labor's election campaign, with the party attempting to tie the Coalition to One Nation in a bid to stem its collapsing support. asserted

party → attempt → support

On Monday, Labor launched an advertisement claiming the Coalition would need One Nation's backing to form government. asserted

Coalition → launch → government

'Polls show the Liberals and One Nation cannot govern without each other,' the advertisement states. asserted

advertisement → show → other

Labor has sought to draw a line under its previous years in government and present Ben Carroll as a fresh start for voters. asserted

Labor → seek → voters

Carroll officially launched Labor's election campaign on Sunday, criss-crossing Victoria aboard a bright red campaign bus emblazoned with the slogan 'New Premier, New Direction'. asserted

Carroll → launch → slogan

The end of Dan-istan: Newspoll shows Labor set to be wiped out at Victorian state election

Quick Summary

AI analysis runs on qwen2.5:14b, locally

Story

Compared with similar articles

Signals How these are calculated →

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Publisher

Who wrote this

Topics

Subjects

Narrative

Claims (20 extracted, 1 hedged)