Andrei Klepach, a prominent Russian macroeconomist and former chief economist of VEB, was fired after making public remarks warning that Russia is falling behind the West and China economically due to its war in Ukraine. In a speech at a financial forum in May, Klepach warned that Russia's costs from the war are mounting and that it may not win an "attrition" competition with Ukraine. He pointed to rising income inequality, slower GDP growth than in the US and Ukraine, and increased inflation risks as major concerns. VEB confirmed Klepach's dismissal but did not provide a reason.
Written by the local model on 2026-08-18,
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Story summary
Andrei Klepach, one of Russia's top macroeconomists and chief economist at VEB, a Russian state development bank, has been fired after warning about the country's struggling economy. In May, he told a financial forum that Russia was falling behind in technological and economic competition with China and the US, and even losing to Ukraine due to Kyiv's Western support. Klepach also compared Russia's current situation to the 1917 revolution, suggesting that a social crisis could arise unexpectedly. Two sources familiar with the matter confirmed Klepach's warnings about the war in Ukraine causing significant economic damage. The VEB has since confirmed that Klepach is no longer its chief economist, but did not give a reason for his dismissal.
Written for “Russia's Economic Woes Over Ukraine War” on 2026-08-31,
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The chief economist of a Russian state development bank has been fired after reportedly drawing comparisons between Russia’s present day economy with the 1917 revolution.
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economist → fire → revolution
Andrei Klepach, one of Russia's most prominent macroeconomists who worked for VEB, made the remarks to a financial forum in May.
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who → work → May
They were reported by Russian media only last week
He warned that the country was falling behind the West and China and suffering mounting economic damage from the war in Ukraine, two sources familiar with the matter told Reuters.
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sources → report → Reuters
“In my view, the economy will hold up, but a social crisis could arise - and at a time when no one particularly expects it.
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one → hold → it
Yet, let me remind you, no one expected the [1917] February revolution either,” he said in reference to how Russia’s last tsar Nicholas II was overthrown, according to The Times.
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tsar → let → Times
"We are falling behind.
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We → fall → ?
We are losing both the technological and economic competition in the world.
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We → lose → world
And we are losing it not only to China and the United States, in some ways we are losing it to Ukraine too," he said, adding that this was due to Kyiv receiving financial support from the West.
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Kyiv → lose → West
"We will not win the competition in this war of attrition.
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We → win → attrition
We have the illusion that everything there (in Ukraine) will collapse.
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everything → have → Ukraine
It has not collapsed and will not collapse.
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It → collapse → ?
Our costs are mounting," he said, predicting a social crisis.
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he → mount → crisis
The speech is published on the website of the Nikitsky Club - a forum of economists, academics and government officials.
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speech → publish → economists
The moment marked a rare public critique by a senior figure at a state institution of the costs of continuing the war that Moscow launched in 2022.
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Moscow → mark → 2022
Klepach has held several roles at economic institutions and worked at the economy ministry for 10 years before joining VEB.
VEB, which finances state projects, confirmed in a written response that Klepach was no longer its chief economist, but did not say why.
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Klepach → hold → response
Klepach, who was appointed to the role in 2014, also confirmed his dismissal to Reuters.
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who → appoint → Reuters
While Klepach highlighted Russia’s resilience to Western sanctions in the May speech, he warned pressures were mounting due to Ukrainian strikes on energy and logistics infrastructure.
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pressures → highlight → infrastructure
He pointed to rising income inequality and a slower GDP growth rate than in the US and Ukraine.
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He → point → US
In July, the Russian central bank suggested the economy might not grow at all this year.
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economy → suggest → July
Over the summer, repeated Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refineries and warehouses of top online retailer Wildberries have created supply shocks, raising inflation risks and public unease.
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attacks → repeat → risks
President Vladimir Putin has said the economy is stable despite what he called external attempts to undermine it.
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he → say → it
"Economically we will not collapse, but our lag will continue to grow, with all the resulting consequences," Klepach said in his speech, predicting a social crisis could arise "precisely when nobody is particularly expecting it."
Klepach also criticised what he called Russia's over-dependence on China and said uncoordinated monetary, budgetary, and industrial policy had contributed to this year's economic slowdown.
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policy → collapse → slowdown
"The quality of governance is almost constantly deteriorating," he said.
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he → deteriorate → governance
"Decisions are being made all the time that have an extremely low level of justification but long-term strategic consequences."
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that → make → justification
