With the two leading AI powers, the United States and China, forming their own AI blocs, other countries are maneuvering to harness the strengths of both groupings and avoid losing out.
asserted
countries → lead → groupings
As the rivalry intensifies, experts say the window for countries to be able to choose freely between the two AI superpowers may be narrowing, forcing them to at one point pick between the U.S.-led Pax Silica and the China-inspired World AI Cooperation Organization.
uncertain
countries → intensify → Silica
That could put many countries in a dilemma: Do they go with the U.S.’s most advanced chips and AI technologies, or join China’s more affordable, open-source AI systems?
uncertain
they → put → systems
Kazakhstan, a Central Asia nation of about 21 million people, is a rare example of a country that has sought to bridge that gap.
asserted
that → seek → gap
Just three weeks after its AI minister Zhaslan Madiyev visited Washington in June to join the U.S. group working to strengthen AI supply chains, he headed to Shanghai for a signing ceremony making the Central Asian country a founding member of China’s initiative to shape the global AI agenda.
asserted
country → visit → agenda
Being in Pax Silica means more technological partnerships, high-tech manufacturing jobs and a place in global AI supply chains.
asserted
Being → mean → chains
At the same time, as part of China’s World AI Cooperation Organization alongside 28 other initial founding countries including Pakistan and Russia, Kazakhstan hopes to also have a voice in setting regional and global AI standards.
asserted
Kazakhstan → found → standards
“Everyone is hedging,” said Dana Masalimova, a former Kazakhstan diplomat and independent scholar and center associate at the Kathryn W. and Shelby Cullom Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies at Harvard University.
asserted
Masalimova → hedge → University
“We don’t want this binary choice,” Masalimova said.
asserted
Masalimova → want → choice
Kazakhstan among countries hoping to harness the best of both blocs
Kazakhstan is benefiting from both U.S. and Chinese investments, but is in a “very precarious spot,” she said,
asserted
she → hop → spot
It has rich critical mineral resources essential to AI development and has cheap electricity to power data centers, which have become politically fraught in the U.S.
Earlier this year, Kazakhstan’s government signed an investment deal worth up to $10 billion involving Nvidia to build a “data center valley” in the country.
asserted
government → have → country
Meanwhile, more Chinese companies are investing in Kazakhstan.
asserted
companies → invest → Kazakhstan
Local officials say Chinese foreign direct investment in Kazakhstan reached a record $2.8 billion in 2025.
asserted
investment → say → 2025
Chinese leader Xi Jinping met with Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev in July to expand cooperation under China’s global infrastructure building Belt and Road initiative.
asserted
Jinping → meet → initiative
Washington’s pressure campaign versus Beijing’s courtship
Both China and the U.S. are leveraging access to AI to increase their global influence.
asserted
China → leverage → influence
President Donald Trump insisted last month that “whoever wins AI, wins.”
asserted
wins → insist → AI
U.S. officials and AI companies have accused China of large-scale “distillation,” or extraction of capabilities, from frontier American models.
asserted
officials → accuse → models
Beijing has rejected those claims and says the U.S. is pursuing an AI monopoly while restricting China’s access to some of the world’s most cutting-edge AI chips and chipmaking machinery.
uncertain
U.S. → reject → chips
Washington has signaled that Pax Silica — with China as its implicit target — is only for the trusted.
“Countries can’t be trusted partners in Pax Silica while substantively engaging in initiatives that advance a competing vision for super intelligence,” the U.S. State Department said, using the Trump administration’s new preferred term for AI.
asserted
Department → signal → AI
For its part, Beijing touts the openness and inclusiveness of its World AI Cooperation Organization.
asserted
Beijing → tout → Organization
“As both major countries in AI, China and the United States should leverage respective strengths in AI rather than guarding against each other,” the Chinese embassy in Washington said in a statement.
asserted
embassy → leverage → statement
“AI should not be owned by major countries.”
asserted
AI → own → countries
The two AI powers have different messaging largely because Beijing needs to court third countries in its bid to build an alternative coalition, whereas Washington already has a powerful network of allies, said Kyle Chan, a fellow at The Brookings Institution’s John L. Thornton China Center.
asserted
Chan → have → Center
That lends power to what he described as “swing countries.”
Indonesia, Singapore may also be caught between China and the US
Like Kazakhstan, Indonesia has resources vital for AI and other technologies, such as nickel and copper.
uncertain
Indonesia → lend → nickel
It’s also seeking to make the most of both AI powers, having joined China’s World AI Cooperation Organization.
asserted
It → seek → Organization
Indonesia wants to benefit from both, Mari Pangestu, Indonesian National Economic Council’s vice chair, told reporters at a University of Hong Kong Business School event.
asserted
Pangestu → want → event
“We should be able to be part of both, put it that way.
asserted
We → put → it
U.S. AI firms are bringing investments to other countries like Singapore, where Anthropic is setting up its latest Asia office.
asserted
Anthropic → bring → office
The city-state says it is also considering joining China’s AI organization.
asserted
it → say → organization
In Saudi Arabia, the AI startup Humain unveiled in September a platform built on an open model by a Chinese AI company.
asserted
startup → unveil → company
The kingdom also has a deal with Nvidia to expand AI computing with its advanced chips.
asserted
kingdom → have → chips
France, one of the most ambitious AI developers aside from the U.S. and China, is attempting to go its own way with its startup Mistral, whose new model released this month outperforms some advanced Chinese models.
asserted
model → attempt → models
Japan is closely aligned with the U.S. on strategic and security issues, including advanced semiconductors, trusted AI and standards.
asserted
Japan → align → semiconductors
But it will not reject the more affordable Chinese AI models for “lower-risk applications,” said Takahiro Tsuchiya, a professor at Kyoto’s University of Foreign Studies.
asserted
Tsuchiya → reject → Studies
Difficult to challenge the two leading powers
For countries like the U.K. and Germany which have substantial economic and military capacity but no self-developed powerful frontier AI models of their own, aligning with the U.S. may be vital for their access to data centers and chip deals with U.S. companies, said Anton Leicht and Sam Winter-Levy at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
uncertain
Leicht → challenge → Peace
Essentially, their access to advanced AI systems “depends on the whims of policymakers in Washington and Beijing,” they said, while those countries may have limited influence over AI’s future.
uncertain
countries → depend → future
China, meanwhile, has been closing the technology gap with the U.S. when it comes to chipmaking and advanced AI capabilities, but it still trails top U.S. technological capabilities, at least for now.
asserted
it → close → capabilities
Also, Beijing’s open-source approach allows countries to be less reliant on the U.S., and China has been providing funding for developing countries to develop their own AI ecosystems, said Alberto Lemma, a research fellow at the think tank ODI Global.
asserted
Lemma → allow → tank
To date, China has provided official sector grants and loans for project and activities that use or enable AI technologies in at least 77 low- and middle-income countries, according to the AidData research lab at William & Mary, a public university in Virginia.
uncertain
that → provide → Virginia
Some top recipients include Nigeria, Zambia, Ghana, Bangladesh, Senegal, Cameroon, and Kenya.
asserted
recipients → include → Nigeria
…and 6 more, not listed.
The Aporia
