With the upcoming New Zealand election on a "knife edge", expats like Brisbane woman Mary-Leigh Scheerhoorn could help shape the result.
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expats → help → result
A permanent resident of Australia, she is one of about 126,000 New Zealanders living overseas who are registered to vote ahead of the general election on November 7.
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who → live → November
Kiwi expats account for more than 3 per cent of registered voters at this election, with nearly two-thirds of them in Australia.
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expats → account → Australia
Ms Scheerhoorn, a clinical nutritionist who has lived in Australia for 24 years, said she was voting to influence the country she hoped to return to one day.
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she → live → country
As a Māori woman, she said she had a strong connection to New Zealand and was "drawn back to be with my people and my culture".
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she → say → people
Voting is not compulsory in New Zealand, but at the 2023 election more than 77,000 of the up to 1 million Kiwis living overseas voted.
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77,000 → live → Kiwis
According to Electoral Commission figures, about 33,000 more overseas voters have registered than for the 2023 election.
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voters → accord → election
New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon, who leads the National Party, is seeking a second term after defeating the Labour Party's Chris Hipkins in 2023.
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who → lead → 2023
Tom Jamieson, a senior lecturer in political science at Te Herenga Waka-Victoria University of Wellington, said polling suggested both the major parties, National and Labour, were generally in the high 20s.
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parties → say → 20s
However, a 1News-Verian poll released on Tuesday had National pushing ahead by five points.
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National → release → points
Nonetheless, Mr Jamieson said there was a "dead heat" between the two blocs and the election looked to be on a "knife edge".
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election → say → edge
"A 1 per cent or a 2 per cent swing could decide the election," Dr Jamieson told the ABC.
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Jamieson → decide → ABC
"So I think it's probably in all of their interests to court the overseas vote as much as possible."
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it → think → vote
He said the non-aligned Opportunity Party could be a "kingmaker" if it won more than 5 per cent of the party vote — the threshold required to enter parliament without winning an electorate seat under the country's electoral system.
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it → say → system
However, he said a lot depended on the turnout.
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lot → say → turnout
Dr Jamieson said New Zealand expats usually voted for minor parties, in part because they had historically worked harder to secure the votes of Kiwis overseas than the major parties.
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they → say → parties
He said the expat vote had also tended to "track left", with the Green and Te Pāti Māori parties receiving strong support from overseas voters at the 2023 election.
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parties → say → election
"The kinds of people who live overseas may relate more to their environmental stewardship and advocacy for Māori," he added.
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he → live → Māori
Expat voting intentions
Ms Scheerhoorn said she was hoping for a new New Zealand government.
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she → say → government
She said she was dismayed by the government's handling of issues relating to the Treaty of Waitangi/Te Tiriti o Waitangi, the nation's founding agreement with Māori people, and the removal of Māori language from some books that teach young children to read to avoid "confusion".
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that → say → confusion
"This has felt like an open attack on the culture, which I think is very much the fabric of New Zealand," she said.
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she → feel → Zealand
She said a future move home had made her consider things like the cost of living, housing and health care.
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her → say → living
"If we want to go back and live in New Zealand … are there jobs available?
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we → want → Zealand
What's the tax situation look like?" she said.
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she → look → 's
She said she was very strongly drawn to the Green Party at this election and had voted for them previously.
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she → say → them
Ron Deane, who moved to Australia from Rotorua three years ago, was also leaning towards voting for a minor party.
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who → move → party
The Brisbane-based truck driver came over after struggling to find work in New Zealand and had similar concerns about the treaty, the cost of living and affordable housing.
He was voting because his friends and family in New Zealand were "feeling the pinch", often forced to make decisions about buying food and paying rent.
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friends → base → rent
"Although I live in Australia, New Zealand is still home.
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Zealand → live → Australia
I care about its future and believe it's important to have a say in the decisions that affect our people, culture and future generations," he said.
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he → care → people
The 44-year-old said he was still deciding who he would vote for.
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he → say → who
About 120,000 more New Zealand citizens left in the three years to August 2026 than returned, according to Stats NZ estimates.
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citizens → leave → estimates
Many like Jethro George moved to Australia in that time.
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Many → move → time
He said Australia's higher wages, cheaper house prices and lower cost of living were significant factors in the move.
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wages → say → move
"The roles I applied for in Australia paid almost double what I was on in New Zealand, with less responsibilities," he told the ABC from his home in Perth.
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he → apply → Perth
"Couple that with lower living costs and a relocation package, it was hard to say no."
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it → couple → costs
Mr George, a 35-year-old mental health worker who also owned his own consultancy business, said he was a swing voter.
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he → own → business
He used to work in New Zealand on housing, homelessness and poverty-related issues.
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He → use → housing
All were key policy concerns for him along with the cost-of-living crisis, which he saw first-hand on a trip to New Zealand earlier this year.
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he → see → Zealand
However, he was frustrated by parties that "just attack each other" rather than suggest solutions and was not yet convinced by the policies of any party, major or minor.
"There isn't the strength that you would want to see in leadership," he said.
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he → frustrate → leadership
Parties court overseas voters
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Parties → court → voters
…and 8 more, not listed.
The Aporia