Brazil’s Lula and Bolsonaro about even ahead of election run-off: Poll

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Al Jazeera Staff. (2026, October 24). Brazil’s Lula and Bolsonaro about even ahead of election run-off: Poll. Al Jazeera. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/24/brazils-lula-and-bolsonaro-about-even-ahead-of-election-run-off-poll?traffic_source=rss

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Al Jazeera · collected 2026-10-24 · by Al Jazeera Staff

Quick Summary

A CNT/MDA poll released on Saturday shows Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro nearly tied for the upcoming election run-off, with 45 percent and 46.3 percent support respectively. The poll surveyed 2,032 people from October 21 to October 23, with a margin of error of 2.2 percentage points. In the final debate before voting day on Sunday, both candidates criticized each other’s policies regarding crime, debt, and living costs in Brazil.
Written locally by qwen2.5:14b on 2026-10-24, using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the same event (that is the story summary below).

AI analysis runs on qwen2.5:14b, locally

Story summary

As of October 24, 2026, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (Lula) and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro remain nearly tied ahead of the presidential election run-off on Sunday. According to a CNT/MDA poll released on Saturday, Bolsonaro leads with 46.3% support compared to Lula's 45%, a slight shift from last week when the margin was slightly larger for Bolsonaro at 46.8% to Lula’s 45.9%. The poll surveyed 2,032 people between October 21 and October 23 with a 2.2 percentage point margin of error.

The final debate before the election saw candidates exchanging criticism over issues such as Brazil's economy, infrastructure, and regional development. Bolsonaro accused Lula of allowing organized crime to grow while failing to address rising costs for families.

Written for “Brazil Election Poll Shows Tie” on 2026-10-24, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.
Why this leaning score
The model judged this article politically coded and scored it +0.35, but 1 quote(s) could not be found in the article and the other 1 are attributed speech rather than the article's own narration, so the score is not published.
Written under an earlier scoring contract, which gave a paragraph rather than checkable quotes. Re-analysing this article replaces it.
Leaning score withheld for article 104308: no verified evidence · logged 2026-10-24

Story

📰 Brazil Election Poll Shows Tie
Politics · 1 article(s) covering the same event.

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How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
12
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
17%
2 of 12 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
withheld
no quote in the article backed the model's score
Publisher signals
60/100
Al Jazeera's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
1
Politics
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-10-24 · how these are computed

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

Al Jazeera · 3906 article(s) · 2 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 2 correction(s)
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Who wrote this

Al Jazeera Staff
681 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 The right-wing senator, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, would receive 46.3 percent of the vote compared with 45 percent for the leftist Lula, according to the poll released on Saturday.
2026-10-24 · assertive framing · Brazil’s Lula and Bolsonaro about even ahead of election run-off: Poll
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Wire or desk byline, not an individual reporter.
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Topics

Brazil Brazilian CNT Datafolha MDA

Subjects

Bolsonaro PERSON · 6× Brazil GPE · 5× Lula PERSON · 3× 3Lula PERSON · 1× Brazilian NORP · 1× CNT ORG · 1× Flavio Bolsonaro PERSON · 1× Jair Bolsonaro PERSON · 1× Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva PERSON · 1× MDA ORG · 1×

Narrative

social media has become an election issue in Brazil’s presidential race - list 2 of 3Lula challenges Bolsonaro to release personal records before election - list 3 of 3Do abstaining voters hold the key to Brazil’s 2026 presidential election?
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-10-24
🔮 The right-wing senator, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, would receive 46.3 percent of the vote compared with 45 percent for the leftist Lula, according to the poll released on Saturday.
2026-10-24 · Al Jazeera
Brazil’s Lula and Bolsonaro about even ahead of election run-off: Poll · assertive framing

Claims (12 extracted, 2 hedged)

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro remain about even on the eve of Sunday’s election run-off, shows a CNT/MDA poll. asserted
poll → remain → off
The right-wing senator, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, would receive 46.3 percent of the vote compared with 45 percent for the leftist Lula, according to the poll released on Saturday. uncertain
senator → receive → Saturday
Last week, the poll showed Bolsonaro leading Lula 46.8 percent to 45.9 percent. asserted
Bolsonaro → show → percent
social media has become an election issue in Brazil’s presidential race - list 2 of 3Lula challenges Bolsonaro to release personal records before election - list 3 of 3Do abstaining voters hold the key to Brazil’s 2026 presidential election? asserted
voters → become → election
MDA surveyed 2,032 people from October 21 to October 23, with a margin of error of 2.2 percentage points. asserted
MDA → survey → points
The poll comes the day after the final debate before the presidential run-off. asserted
poll → come → off
The candidates questioned each other on Friday about Brazil’s economy, infrastructure and regional development. asserted
candidates → question → economy
Bolsonaro accused the incumbent of allowing organised crime to expand, driving families into debt and not addressing the higher cost of living. asserted
crime → accuse → living
“He doesn’t know what hunger is,” Brazil’s first working-class president said of Bolsonaro. asserted
president → know → Bolsonaro
“He doesn’t know Brazil.” asserted
He → know → Brazil
Sunday’s vote comes after Bolsonaro finished first in the initial round of voting on October 4 with 47 percent to Lula’s 45 percent. asserted
Bolsonaro → come → percent
A Datafolha institute survey published on Thursday suggested the pair are now tied with 50 percent support each, compared with Bolsonaro’s four-point lead in polls published two weeks ago. uncertain
pair → publish → polls
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