Can millions of people live on the moon?
asserted
millions → live → moon
These scientists say yes — but not for very long
Power and water are the main resources needed to live on the moon
Humans have long dreamed about reaching out and exploring space.
asserted
Humans → say → space
Most science fiction, more often than not, portrays cities on the dusty lunar surface and Mars.
asserted
fiction → portray → surface
And if you listen to some billionaires like Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos, cities on the moon are coming soon.
asserted
cities → listen → moon
In fact, in February, SpaceX CEO Musk posted on social media that the company was shifting its focus away from settling on Mars — something Musk has been passionate about for the past decade.
asserted
Musk → post → decade
“For those unaware, SpaceX has already shifted focus to building a self-growing city on the moon, as we can potentially achieve that in less than 10 years, whereas Mars would take 20+ years,” he wrote.
asserted
he → shift → years
This statement — and those of Blue Origin CEO Bezos, who has claimed “millions of people” will be living in space by 2045 — intrigued Martin Elvis, senior astrophysicist at Harvard University’s Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory.
asserted
millions → claim → Observatory
He, along with astrophysicist Jonathan McDowell, honorary professor at the Durham University Space Research Centre in England, decided to take a look at the numbers.
asserted
He → decide → numbers
But their findings, it turns out, aren't great for a lunar civilization, so don’t start packing just yet.
asserted
it → turn → civilization
In their paper, published in the journal Frontiers in Space Technologies, the pair decided to examine power and water needed to sustain humans on the moon.
asserted
pair → publish → moon
When it comes to power, they found that solar and nuclear would be enough to sustain one million people on the lunar surface.
asserted
solar → come → surface
It may be surprising to some, but there is water on the moon.
uncertain
It → be → moon
It’s believed that most of it is contained in permanently shadowed regions (PSR), areas at the poles that never see sunlight.
asserted
that → believe → sunlight
But in this study, they found that there’s not enough on the moon to sustain a large human presence on the lunar surface.
asserted
they → find → surface
“Our work shows that, yeah, if you want to have an Antarctic base on the moon for the next few hundred years, no problem.
asserted
you → show → years
If you want to have a small town, that's doable.
asserted
that → want → town
If you want to cover the face of the moon with cities, like in the best science fiction, then you have to find a way to get the water there, because it's not there right now,” McDowell said.
asserted
McDowell → want → water
Assuming that there is roughly one billion tonnes of water on the moon, which is in line with current estimates, they found that a civilization of one million people would only be able to live on the moon for roughly 100 years.
asserted
civilization → assume → years
And that’s only if we can recycle 98 per cent of the water, which is what is done on the International Space Station.
asserted
what → ’ → Station
Elvis said that while one billion tonnes of water sounds like a lot, you have to put it in perspective.
asserted
you → say → perspective
“If you had a huge aquarium the size of Central Park in Manhattan, you could fill it up to where the Statue of Liberty was just underwater and that's the amount of water you've got.
uncertain
you → have → water
And a small lake is not going to supply a big city for very long.”
That’s not to say that humans can’t ever live on the moon.
asserted
humans → go → moon
If it were a town of 10,000, they found that would be sustainable for centuries.
asserted
that → find → centuries
However, that's assuming that the one billion tonnes of water is an accurate estimate.
asserted
tonnes → assume → water
"Very likely a billion is way overestimating.
asserted
billion → overestimate → ?
It's probably 20 or 30 times too big," Elvis said.
asserted
Elvis → say → ?
He also said that it's unlikely that we'd be able to recover all the water that's available.
asserted
that → say → water
"So my best guess is the real amount of water available that we can be fairly confident about is one per cent of what we said before.
asserted
we → say → what
And there's one other thing: We don't know in what form that water exists.
asserted
water → be → ?
And we need to figure that out.
asserted
we → need → that
We’ve already been to the moon, so why are we going again?
asserted
we → go → moon
NASA has set its sights on a moon base.
asserted
NASA → set → base
Here's how Canada can play an important role
"
asserted
Canada → play → role
It's one thing to detect it from satellites, but ... there are uncertainties in those measurements," said Gordon Osinski, a professor in planetary geology at Western University in London, Ont.
asserted
Osinski → detect → London
"I think it is there, but let's go and ground-truth that and confirm it.
asserted
's → think → it
And then there's the bigger unknowns of what form it's in….
asserted
it → be → form
Is it more like the permafrost up in the Arctic, where it's basically soil with, you know, sub-millimetre size ice crystals, which are hard to get out of?
asserted
which → know → crystals
"
While this may sound like pessimistic news for humanity's plans to explore the cosmos, McDowell said it's best to know what you're dealing with.
uncertain
you → sound → what
"The truth is never negative," he said.
asserted
he → say → ?
"What's negative is to actually go and try and do something that isn't going to work."
asserted
that → go → something
The Aporia
