— Winning Texas has been the Democratic Party’s white whale for years, the much-hyped attempts repeatedly ending in disappointment.
asserted
attempts → win → disappointment
Now, the U.S. Senate contest between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton is another tantalizing opening, and as the long race enters its final few days, the contest could well turn on its unusual points of friction.
uncertain
contest → enter → friction
Can a campaign rooted in hope douse one of fear?
asserted
campaign → root → fear
Will Paxton’s embrace of President Donald Trump propel or cost him?
asserted
embrace → propel → him
Can the world’s richest man tip the scales?
asserted
man → tip → scales
The answers will have echoes beyond Texas and not just by helping decide which party controls Congress in Trump’s final two years in office.
asserted
party → have → office
A Talarico victory in a Republican state could signal a redrawing of the national political map.
uncertain
victory → signal → map
A win by Paxton would extinguish a dream by Democrats that the state’s shifting demographics would eventually prevail after decades of Republican dominance.
asserted
demographics → extinguish → dominance
“We’re going to shock the world when we take back Texas,” Talarico told a crowd this week.
asserted
Talarico → go → crowd
Hours later, Paxton, at his own rally, told an energized crowd: “If we lose Texas, we lose America.”
asserted
we → tell → America
Paxton paints a dark picture
asserted
Paxton → paint → picture
As Paxton describes it, this election is like a drop of water above the Continental Divide — the line running down the spine of the Rocky Mountains where, on one side, the drop flows to the Pacific Ocean and, on the other, the Atlantic.
asserted
drop → describe → other
“They end up 3,000 miles apart.
asserted
They → end → ?
That’s what our elections are like now,” he explained to a crowd near the U.S.-Mexico border.
asserted
he → ’ → border
“It’s the America our founders gave us versus something they wouldn’t recognize.”
asserted
they → ’ → something
But a Senate seat that seemed like a Republican lock when the year began has instead become a referendum on Paxton’s fraught background that includes being impeached by his own party over corruption accusations and a very public divorce.
asserted
that → seem → accusations
Still, he was able to win the coveted endorsement of Trump and defeat the incumbent, Sen. John Cornyn, in a primary.
asserted
he → win → primary
Now, in the campaign’s closing days, he is casting Talarico as an extreme liberal out of step with the state.
asserted
he → close → state
A vote for Talarico “is a vote for every dangerous idea that Democrats across the country are putting forward,” he said, which means violent criminals will destroy the country and the U.S. Supreme Court will become a radical liberal rubber-stamp.
asserted
Court → put → country
Earlier that day, Talarico’s rally had a different tenor, and without one direct attack on the Republican Party in a race in which he will need GOP voters to win.
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voters → have → which
“We have an affordability crisis because we have a corruption crisis,” he told a revved-up crowd at the University of Houston.
asserted
he → have → Houston
“But we can change that in this election, in this state, in this race, if we come together not as Democrats or Republicans but as Texans.
asserted
we → change → Texans
That reminds him, he often says these days, of David locked in a battle against Goliath, or, in this case, billionaire megadonors.
asserted
he → remind → case
“(David) may not have had as many weapons, but he had faith, he had hope and he had a slingshot,” said Talarico, a Presbyterian seminary student.
uncertain
Talarico → have → slingshot
Is Talarico the Democrat to win Texas?
asserted
Talarico → win → Texas
Texas Democrats have had their hopes dashed before, notably when former congressman Beto O’Rourke lost a race to Republican Sen. Ted Cruz in 2018 by less than 3 percentage points.
asserted
hopes → have → points
Talarico has generated at least as much enthusiasm, has amassed more money and has a less formidable opponent in Paxton.
asserted
Talarico → generate → Paxton
Supporters who lived through O’Rourke’s and others’ attempts often hold contradictory feelings: a confidence that Talarico can win in such a deeply conservative state and a nagging suspicion that he, like many before him, will fall short.
asserted
he → live → him
Paxton has tried to leverage cultural issues against Talarico, emphasizing his support for transgender rights and previous statements such as “God is nonbinary.”
asserted
God → try → rights
But Talarico has proved to be a nimble counter puncher, hammering Paxton about corruption and tying him to the struggling economy while also trying to sidestep partisanship and proffering a positive agenda.
asserted
Talarico → prove → agenda
In a state with a majority of Republican voters, Paxton is betting on the partisan loyalties holding.
asserted
loyalties → bet → voters
“It’s simple math,” said Carmen Calderone, the Nueces County GOP chair, in his warm-up speech at Paxton’s rally.
asserted
Calderone → ’ → rally
“We can win if we turn out the vote.”
asserted
we → win → vote
Paxton’s campaign slogan for his final bus tour sledgehammers that point home: “Come and take it.”
asserted
slogan → come → it
Elon Musk and the most expensive Senate race
Total ad spending sits just under $340 million since each candidate locked up his nomination, according to the ad-tracking firm AdImpact.
While Talarico’s campaign outpaced Paxton’s, big donors, including the world’s richest man, have come to the Republican’s aid via super PACs.
uncertain
donors → sit → PACs
Musk has headquartered his companies Tesla and SpaceX — as well as himself — in Texas, and he has staked millions of dollars to defend its Republican monopoly in Congress.
asserted
he → headquarter → Congress
Trump, too, has flown to Texas several times and praised Paxton’s work as attorney general, if not his appearance and attire.
asserted
Trump → fly → general
To Talarico, it’s a trifecta of Goliaths — “the richest man in the world, the most powerful man in the world, the most corrupt politician in Texas” — and plays into his own campaign message.
asserted
it → ’ → message
Brandon Rottinghaus, a political science professor at the University of Houston, said Talarico’s more forward-looking message can meet an electorate weary of partisan politics as “high-stakes drama,” while Paxton’s message of doom if Talarico wins may struggle with voters dissatisfied with the economic status quo in a state — and a nation — led by Republicans.
uncertain
Talarico → say → Republicans
“The fact that people are shocked into reassessing their own partisan beliefs is because of a sour economy,” he said.
asserted
he → shock → economy
…and 11 more, not listed.
The Aporia
