In a preface to his book Capitalism and Freedom, the American economist Milton Friedman famously observed that a crisis can propel once-fringe ideas into the political mainstream.
asserted
crisis → observe → mainstream
“Only a crisis – actual or perceived – produces real change.
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crisis → perceive → change
When that crisis occurs, the actions that are taken depend on the ideas that are lying around,” he wrote.
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he → occur → ideas
The job of intellectuals, thinktanks and economists, he argued, is to refine the quality of these ambient ideas, so that good ones are ready when disaster strikes.
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disaster → argue → ideas
A chorus of influential voices is now predicting that AI may trigger crises of vast magnitude.
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AI → predict → magnitude
Bill Gates has declared that AI will advance so rapidly that within a decade, humans will not be needed “for most things”.
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humans → declare → things
Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei has warned that the technology could cause widespread unemployment within one to five years, eliminating many positions in law, tech, finance and other white-collar professions.
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technology → warn → law
Even if these predictions are wrong, investors who bet heavily on the technology may conclude that AI is a bubble, and this in itself could cause a recession and widespread job loss.
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this → bet → recession
Whether a crisis of mass AI-related job loss turns out to be actual or perceived, one policy idea that is attracting growing attention and support could directly mitigate this problem: a job guarantee.
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that → relate → problem
In its most ambitious form, such a program would ensure that anyone who wants work is guaranteed a meaningful, decently paid job.
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who → ensure → job
By creating a public option for employment, its supporters argue, a job guarantee could protect millions of people from the financial and psychological damage of joblessness and mobilize a vast labor force to tackle urgent societal problems, from infrastructure and climate adaptation to elder care and childcare.
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guarantee → create → care
The concept of a job guarantee has a long history, both as an ideal and an actual policy.
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concept → have → ideal
Article 23 of the 1948 Universal Declaration of Human Rights states: “Everyone has the right to work, to free choice of employment, to just and favourable conditions of work and to protection against unemployment.”
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Everyone → state → unemployment
During the Great Depression in the 1930s, Franklin D Roosevelt established the Works Progress Administration (WPA), which employed millions of Americans in ambitious public works projects that constructed roads, bridges, sewers, playing fields and much more.
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that → establish → roads
More recently, France, India and Argentina are among the countries that have launched versions of a job guarantee.
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that → launch → guarantee
Though a job guarantee and universal basic income (UBI) are often grouped together, a recent global survey found greater support for job guarantees than UBIs.
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survey → group → UBIs
Polling of Americans by the Democratic strategist David Shor also shows the same pattern, with greater support for the creation of well-paid jobs than for direct income support.
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Polling → show → support
This makes sense, the venture capitalist and civic activist Nick Hanauer said, because “jobs represent so much more than income in human societies.
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jobs → make → societies
They represent connection and dignity and enfranchisement and participation.”
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They → represent → connection
Algernon Austin, director for race and economic justice at the Center for Economic and Policy Research, agreed: “A job guarantee is significantly preferable to UBI because work is more than just income.
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work → agree → income
When you have a job, you gain work experience and you gain skills and you gain a network.”
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you → have → network
Calculating the cost of a job guarantee depends on a holistic assessment of its impacts.
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Calculating → calculate → impacts
During a US Senate hearing on affordability in June, John Kennedy, a Republican senator for Louisiana, suggested that a job guarantee would cost trillions of dollars and was impossible.
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guarantee → suggest → dollars
When Dr Julie Margetta Morgan, president of the public policy thinktank the Century Foundation, told Kennedy that she supported a federal job guarantee, he replied: “Do you believe in the Easter bunny?”
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you → tell → bunny
Economists who study job guarantees see the calculation of costs and benefits differently.
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who → study → costs
Max Kasy, a professor of economics at Oxford who has studied a recent job guarantee experiment in Austria, said that while the wages a job guarantee pays participants comprise a cost, such programs also save money in multiple ways.
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programs → study → ways
“The cost saving comes from the fact that you don’t have to pay unemployment benefits, or maybe disability benefits or early retirement benefits.
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you → come → benefits
Then people who are working pay taxes and make social insurance contributions, so that’s additional revenue for the state.
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that → work → state
And then they hopefully do something that’s actually useful for society,” he said.
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he → do → society
Participants in the job guarantee experiment in Austria also experienced social and psychological benefits.
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Participants → experience → benefits
While the monetary value of greater wellbeing may be hard to quantify, such intangibles are crucial, according to Pavlina Tcherneva, a professor of economics at Bard College.
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intangibles → quantify → College
“Providing a good job to a person is absolutely transformative,” she said.
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she → provide → person
Factoring in the costs of health problems that come from precarious unemployment and long-term unemployment, she added, makes the policy even more attractive, saying: “It’s not only affordable, it’s an investment.
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it → factor → unemployment
In September, the US representative Ayanna Pressley, a Democrat from Massachusetts, reintroduced a congressional resolution calling for the creation of a federal job guarantee, something she first proposed in 2021.
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she → reintroduce → 2021
Her proposal would create a federally funded but locally administered job guarantee that pays participants at least $25 an hour, with regular adjustments to reflect the rising cost of living.
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that → create → living
The jobs would include a range of sectors, such as emergency preparedness, relief and recovery after natural disasters, care for children and seniors, and public art projects modelled on the WPA’s popular Federal Art Project.
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jobs → include → Project
Another recent proposal would directly tax AI companies to fund a federal job guarantee.
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proposal → tax → guarantee
The plan, which is supported by Democratic US representatives Greg Casar of Texas, Valerie Foushee of North Carolina and Sara Jacobs of California, would tax large AI companies on whatever was higher: the value of their “tokens” – units of data used in AI models – or their revenue from AI products.
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whatever → support → products
If the unemployment rate rose, the tax rate would increase.
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rate → rise → ?
“AI CEOs are openly predicting their technology could put millions of Americans out of work, and our government is doing nothing to save jobs and protect working people,” Casar said in a written statement.
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Casar → predict → statement
…and 9 more, not listed.
The Aporia
