President Donald Trump is holding back on sweeping new economic penalties Congress handed him to squeeze Russia.
asserted
Congress → hold → Russia
He is betting that keeping those sanctions in reserve will help bring Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table, a strategy drawing criticism from Republican allies amid questions about whether Moscow believes he will ever use them.
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he → bet → them
Over roughly a week, the administration waived most of the new Russia sanctions and tariffs enacted last month while separately easing restrictions on Russian diesel exports, moves one foreign policy expert described as Trump's most significant effort yet to unwind economic pressure on Moscow.
"It's probably the biggest effort that the Trump administration has made to start unwinding the U.S. sanctions architecture that's been in place against Russia since 2022 or even earlier in some cases," Hal Brands, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, told Fox News Digital.
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Brands → waive → Digital
Trump argues that imposing the new penalties could drive Russia away from peace negotiations.
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imposing → argue → negotiations
But Brands said repeatedly holding back economic punishment risks convincing Putin that Washington is unwilling to follow through on its threats.
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Washington → say → threats
"The threat of imposition may lose some credibility if over a period of time you've demonstrated that you would prefer not to impose those penalties in the first place," Brands said.
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Brands → lose → place
The decision has drawn criticism from Republicans who helped advance the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act, including Trump allies who worked with his White House to pass it.
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who → draw → it
Sen. Katie Britt, R-Ala., who played a leading role in passing the legislation and joined Trump in the Oval Office when he signed it last month, said Tuesday the administration should be turning up economic pressure on Moscow.
"It is my belief that we need to use economic firepower to help drive Putin to the table," Britt told Semafor.
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Britt → play → Semafor
"I believe that Russia is at the darkest point that they've been at in this entire war, and now is the time for us to turn up the pressure."
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us → believe → pressure
Sen. Shelley Moore Capito, R-W.Va., said Congress had coordinated the legislation's timing with the White House, making Trump's decision to waive most of its new penalties particularly surprising.
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decision → say → penalties
"This was an act of Congress that we had worked with the White House on," Capito said.
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Capito → work → House
"We had timed this to when the president and the White House felt it was a good time to move forward with this, where it could be effective.
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it → time → this
"Beyond irresponsible," Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., wrote on X. "What part of enforcing a law passed 86-11 by the Senate does the President and his advisors not understand?
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President → write → Senate
"It's unconscionable that this administration is capitulating to a Russian dictator who illegally invaded Ukraine and butchers innocent civilians every single day," he added.
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he → capitulate → civilians
Sen. Darline Graham, R-S.C., the lead sponsor of the legislation named for her late brother and a Trump-endorsed candidate, said she would "choose to keep the pressure on Russia" because "I don't trust Putin and I don't trust Russia."
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I → name → Russia
The Graham Act, signed into law in September, provided for steep tariffs targeting Russia and major purchasers of Russian energy, along with sanctions on Russian financial institutions and foreign entities doing significant business with them.
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Act → sign → them
Congress also included presidential waiver authority, which Trump invoked to put most of the law's new Russia penalties on hold.
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Trump → include → hold
Brands said including a waiver was not necessarily a mistake, even if it ultimately allowed Trump to avoid imposing the penalties lawmakers had sought.
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lawmakers → say → penalties
"It's really tough to craft a sanctions or tariffs bill that forces the president to do something, and typically you don't want to do that because there are always circumstances one can imagine in which you might want to be able to waive sanctions," he said.
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he → craft → sanctions
Trump has defended his decision as necessary to keep Putin at the negotiating table.
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Trump → defend → table
I am in the process of negotiating Peace in the war between Russia and Ukraine, and don't want to do anything that will drive, foolishly, Russia away from the bargaining table," Trump wrote Sunday.
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Trump → negotiate → table
In his formal certification to Congress, Trump said imposing the Graham Act penalties now "would impede ongoing U.S. efforts to negotiate a durable and comprehensive peace."
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imposing → say → peace
He left open the possibility of imposing them later to "incentivize resolution" of the war.
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He → leave → war
Brands acknowledged that holding sanctions in reserve can give a president bargaining power, but questioned whether Putin believes Trump is prepared to follow through.
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Trump → acknowledge → power
"The challenge is that it's been clear for about 18 months now, since Lindsey Graham started pushing this bill in the first place in the early parts of 2025, that the president simply doesn't have much appetite for squeezing the Russian energy export system to the degree that people like the late Senator Graham envisioned and desired," Brands said.
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Brands → start → Graham
The administration has separately eased existing restrictions to allow more Russian diesel onto the market, a move intended to relieve pressure on global fuel prices.
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administration → ease → prices
Trump has criticized Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries, arguing they are straining diesel markets.
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they → criticize → markets
Energy Secretary Chris Wright has described sanctions relief as a "carrot" that could encourage Russia to de-escalate.
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that → describe → Russia
Brands said the immediate financial benefit to Moscow from diesel relief is probably "fairly marginal."
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benefit → say → relief
The more consequential decision, he argued, was Trump's refusal to activate the broader sanctions and tariffs Congress authorized.
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Congress → argue → sanctions
"There's a potential for pretty serious pressure to be exerted if he had used both the sanctions authorities and essentially the secondary tariff authorities to go after purchasers of Russian energy products overseas," Brands said.
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Brands → be → products
Such measures could "put a fairly significant squeeze on the Russian war economy" while discouraging other countries from doing business with Moscow, he added.
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he → put → Moscow
Brands acknowledged that squeezing Russian energy exports could further strain global energy markets when Trump is focused on lowering fuel prices at home.
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Trump → acknowledge → home
But he argued that the larger risk lies in what Putin concludes about Washington's willingness to sustain economic pressure.
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Putin → argue → pressure
"Putin's theory of victory in Ukraine for a long time has been that at some point the West, particularly the United States, will get tired of the costs of confrontation with Russia and support for Ukraine," Brands said.
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Brands → get → Ukraine
The concern, he explained, is less about the immediate revenue Moscow gains from additional diesel exports than the possibility that easing restrictions reinforces Putin's belief that Washington is growing tired of confronting Russia.
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Washington → explain → Russia
"The risk you run here has less to do with the precise dollar or ruble amount that Russia will gain by being allowed to export some additional diesel than with the strategic signal you're sending that, in fact, the U.S. is getting tired of applying economic pressure against Russia and that the U.S.-Ukraine relationship is entering another period of conflict and divergence," Brands said.
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Brands → run → conflict
Brands sees little prospect for a negotiated settlement in the immediate future and argued that changing Putin's calculation would require convincing him that the costs of continuing the war outweigh the potential gains.
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costs → see → gains
"I think the only way you get there is by continuing to support Ukraine so it can take an increasing toll on Russia on the battlefield and by finding ways of ramping up rather than ramping down the economic pressure on Russia," Brands said.
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Brands → think → Russia
Trump's waiver does not eliminate sanctions against Russia that predated the Graham Act, and the administration can revisit the new penalties.
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administration → eliminate → penalties
…and 1 more, not listed.
The Aporia
