Only 12% say their family is better off financially compared to two years ago, and more than 6 in 10 disapprove of President Donald Trump’s job performance, including 2 in 10 Republicans.
asserted
10 → say → Republicans
A Fox News survey of Maine likely voters finds that mood weighs on Republican Sen. Susan Collins, as 53% are concerned she votes with Trump too much.
asserted
she → find → Trump
Despite those views, the horse race shows the candidates tied, with Jackson and Collins at 49% apiece.
asserted
Jackson → show → %
All survey interviews were completed after the candidates’ Oct. 15 debate.
asserted
interviews → complete → debate
Collins, who first won her seat about three decades ago, is seeking a sixth term.
asserted
who → win → term
She’s the only GOP senator running for re-election this year from a state Trump lost in 2024 (by 7 points).
asserted
Trump → ’ → points
In 2020, Collins won by nearly 9 points.
asserted
Collins → win → points
Democrats view Maine as a must-win seat in their effort to take control of the Senate.
asserted
Democrats → view → Senate
When voters are asked about control of the U.S. Senate, 53% prefer a Democratic-led Senate vs. 45% who want the Republicans to remain in charge.
asserted
Republicans → ask → charge
While almost all Jackson supporters want Democratic control (96%), Collins supporters are more divided: 89% want a GOP-led chamber, but 9% prefer Democratic leadership.
asserted
% → want → leadership
Collins will need to overcome the energy on the left, as far more Democrats (79%) than Republicans (61%) say they are extremely interested in the election, which explains why Jackson is ahead by 16 points among that group.
asserted
Jackson → need → group
He’s up by 4 points among those who say they are "certain" to vote, and also carries the one in five Mainers who have already cast a ballot by a decisive 40 points.
asserted
who → ’ → points
On the other hand, a slim majority plans to vote on Election Day, and they favor Collins by 12 points.
asserted
they → plan → points
"Collins is no stranger to outrunning her party, but Democrats hold an 18-point enthusiasm advantage," says Mikaela Linder of Beacon Research, a Democratic polling firm that conducts the Fox News Poll with Republican Daron Shaw.
asserted
that → outrun → Shaw
"Trump’s job rating is 25 points underwater, and a majority strongly disapproves of him.
asserted
majority → disapprove → him
Jackson has an opening if he can carry that momentum beyond his base and across the finish line.
asserted
he → have → line
Currently, 37% of voters approve of the job Trump is doing as president, while 62% disapprove, including 54% who strongly disapprove.
asserted
who → approve → %
Partisan vote choice varies distinctly across key groups.
asserted
choice → vary → groups
Voters under 45 favor Collins by 6 points, while those ages 45 and older prefer Jackson by 3.
asserted
Voters → favor → 3
Women support Jackson by 5 points, while men back Collins by 4.
asserted
men → support → 4
The sharpest divide is education: Mainers with a college degree pick Jackson by 23 points, while Collins leads among those without a degree by 16.
asserted
Collins → pick → 16
Collins is ahead among those living in rural areas by 7 points, while Jackson is the pick of the smaller number of suburban voters by 18 points.
asserted
Jackson → live → points
For comparison, in 2020, Collins won both the voters living in rural areas and those without a college degree by 18 points each.
asserted
Collins → win → points
"Republicans appear to be struggling with White rural voters this cycle, and Maine is no exception," Shaw said.
asserted
Shaw → appear → voters
"GOP candidates desperately need these voters to show up, and need something like a 65-35 vote to overcome Democratic strength in urban areas."
Party loyalty is roughly even as 9 in 10 of each candidate’s party faithful back them, and the small subgroup of independents favors Collins by 13 points.
asserted
subgroup → need → points
Both Jackson (92%) and Collins (90%) supporters have a high degree of vote certainty.
asserted
Jackson → have → certainty
In Maine’s gubernatorial race, Democrat Hannah Pingree leads Republican Bobby Charles by 10 points, 49% to 39%, while independent candidate Rick Bennett takes 9%.
asserted
Bennett → lead → %
CLICK HERE FOR CROSSTABS AND TOPLINE
Unlike Jackson, whose coalition backs Pingree almost unanimously (only 8% defect), nearly one in five Collins supporters (19%) peel off to either Bennett (11%) or Pingree (8%).
asserted
supporters → click → Bennett
Conducted October 16-20, 2026, under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox News Poll includes interviews with a sample of 1,689 Maine registered voters randomly selected from a statewide voter file.
asserted
Poll → conduct → file
Respondents spoke with live interviewers on landlines (226) and cellphones (1,035) or completed the survey online after receiving a text message (428).
asserted
Respondents → speak → message
Results based on the registered voter sample have a margin of sampling error of ±2 percentage points and for the subsample of 1,514 likely voters it is ±2.5 percentage points.
asserted
it → base → voters
In addition to sampling error, question wording and order can influence results.
asserted
wording → influence → results
Sources for developing weight targets include the most recent American Community Survey, Fox News Voter Analysis, and voter file data.
asserted
Sources → develop → Survey
Weights are generally applied to age, race, education, and area variables to ensure the demographics of respondents are representative of the registered voter population.
asserted
demographics → apply → population
Likely voters are based on a probabilistic statistical model that relies on past vote history, interest in the current election, intention to vote, age, education, race, ethnicity, and marital status.
asserted
that → base → election
Results among subgroups are only shown when the sample size is at least N=100.
asserted
size → show → subgroups
Fox News’ Victoria Balara contributed to this report.
asserted
Balara → contribute → report
The Aporia
